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In 2024, Brazil surpassed the United States in cotton production and exports for the first time on record. Brazil's MY2024/25 planted area is also estimated to reach a new record. Favorable prices compared to corn as well as lower production costs have boosted cotton's profitability, making it the preferred choice for second crop planting.

Post revised up Brazil’s MY 2024/25 cotton production forecast to 16.6 million 480lb bales (3.6 million metric tons (MMT)), an 11 percent increase compared to the previous MY. The main drivers behind this record output are a forecasted area increase (revised up to 1.94 million hectares), and better-than-anticipated yields across key producing states.

For MY 2024/25, Post forecasts cotton area to grow 13 percent compared to the current season, to 1.87 million hectares. Post also forecasts cotton production at a record 15.4 million bales (3.3 million metric tons (MMT)) on the back of significant area increase.

Following USDA’s revision of Brazil’s cotton balance sheet, production estimates moved one year ahead, meaning that Marketing Year (MY) 2023/24 cotton is equivalent to production bales entering the market in 2023, and not 2024. Post maintained its...

Post increased the forecast for 2023/24 cotton area planted to 1.67 million hectares (ha), an increase of just under one percent from the 1.66 million ha cotton area estimate for 2022/23.

Post forecasts 2022/23 planted cotton area at 1.66 million hectares (ha), with production at 13.3 million bales (2.89 million metric tons, MMT), about a 13 percent increase from the 2021/22 estimated production of 11.52 million bales (2.5 MMT). Cotton area is forecast to rise because of favorable weather leading to timely first-season soybean planting and improved yields, as well as a favorable outlook for prices and profitability.

Post forecasts 2022/23 cotton area planted at 1.65 million hectares (ha), an increase of just over one percent from the 1.63 million ha cotton area estimate for 2021/22. Post’s forecast is based on expectations that despite challenges, such as risings costs and tightening margins, Brazilian producers are optimistic about the crop’s prospects, and eager to continue growing the sector.

For 2022/23, Post forecasts cotton planted area to shrink 3 percent compared to the current season, to 1.55 million hectares. The Post forecast for 2022/23 cotton production is 12.6 million bales, or 2.74 million metric tons (MMT), down from 13 million bales (2.83 MMT) in 2020/21.

Post forecasts 2021/22 planted cotton area at 1.52 million hectares (ha), with production at 12.6 million bales (2.74 million metric tons – MMT), more than a 10 percent greater than the 2020/21 estimated production of 10.68 million bales (2.33 MMT).

Post forecasts 2021/22 cotton area planted at 1.45 million hectares (ha), an increase from the current harvest, but lower than the previous forecast.

For 2021/22, Post forecasts cotton planted area to rebound 11 percent compared to the current season, to 1.6 million hectares.

South Asia, which includes Afghanistan, Bangladesh, Bhutan, India, Maldives, Nepal, Pakistan, and Sri Lanka, accounts for 24 percent of the world’s population, with 1.84 billion people in 2019.