Brazil: Cotton and Products Update

Post forecasts 2021/22 cotton area planted at 1.45 million hectares (ha), an increase from the current harvest, but lower than the previous forecast. Post’s forecast is mostly based on challenges with profitability of the crop and slower economic and trade recovery from the pandemic. In addition, cotton faces increasing competition with soy and corn. While producers are benefit from high cotton prices, production costs are also rising, tightening profit margins. The Post forecast for 2021/22 cotton production is 12.3 million bales. For the 2020/21 season, Post estimates area harvested at 1.37 million ha, and production at 11.3 million bales, with output lower than initially envisioned due to unfavorable weather. While domestic consumption is expected to decrease slightly, exports are forecast be stronger than ever. Post forecasts 2021/22 MY exports at 11.1 million bales, up from the current season export estimate of 11 million bales. Exports continue to be encouraged by weak domestic currency.