Brazil: Cotton and Products Update

Following USDA’s revision of Brazil’s cotton balance sheet, production estimates moved one year ahead, meaning that Marketing Year (MY) 2023/24 cotton is equivalent to production bales entering the market in 2023, and not 2024. Post maintained its area estimate for MY 2023/24 at 1.7 million hectares (ha) and revised up production estimates to 14.7 million bales (3.2 million metric tons (MMT)) to capture Brazil’s record cotton harvest and yield across key states due to optimal weather conditions. Brazil is set to surpass the United States in cotton production for the first time on record during MY 2023/24. Domestic consumption is estimated by Post at 3.3 million bales (750 thousand MT), with exports forecasted at 11 million bales (2.4 MMT) due to higher global imports and consumption, and reduced production in China, India and the United States. Post forecasts ending stocks at six million bales (1.3 MMT) in MY 2023/24, largely due to high exports and domestic consumption volumes.