Ukraine: Tree Nuts Annual

Post forecasts Ukraine’s walnut production at 100,500 metric tons (MT) for marketing year (MY) 2025/26, similar to Post’s previous MY estimate. Household production continues to fall as older, non-productive trees are being cut down. Total areas for industrial growers are decreasing due to the lack of long-term investment precipitated by the Russia-Ukraine war, as well as producers switching to annual crops that offer faster returns on investment. MY2024/25 exports were low due to quality issues in households caused by lack of moisture. Current weather conditions suggest the MY2025/26 crop might feature similar quality issues. Ukrainian walnut exporters are sandwiched between large global suppliers, including the United States, which set the bar high in terms of quality standards. Under these circumstances, household producers, which generate the bulk of walnut output, cannot deliver sufficient quality to readily compete.