Browse Data and Analysis

Post increases marketing year (MY) 2024/2025 soybean production to reach 52 million metric tons (MMT), up 1 MMT higher than USDA official and Post’s previous estimate on 17.2 million hectares (MHA) harvested as producers shift to more soy away from corn over fears of the impact of corn stunt (leafhopper/Chicharrita) in corn, continued low prices, and expected dry conditions.

Post increased its estimate for soybean production in 2024/25 to 161 million metric tons (MMT), from the previous estimate of 160 MMT.

FAS/Sofia estimates a reduction in Bulgarian oilseeds crops in marketing year (MY) 2024/25 due to extremely hot and dry weather conditions in July and August. FAS/Sofia estimates the rapeseed crop at 190,000 metric tons (MT), down nine percent from last year and 36 percent from two years ago.

FAS/Sofia expects a lower Bulgarian rapeseed crop in marketing year (MY) 2024/25, falling by four percent from last year to about 200,000 metric tons (MT), due to a combination of reduced harvested area and unfavorable weather.

Post forecasts Argentina soybean production at 51 million metric tons (MMT) in marketing year (MY) 2024/2025 as production returns to assuming good weather in the year ahead and increased soy planting at the expense of wheat and corn, particularly in late or second crop soy.

Mexico’s oilseed crush in marketing year (MY) 2024/25 is forecast to increase due to higher vegetable oil and animal feed demand. Forecast economic growth and lower interest rates are expected to drive production of oil and meal and increase Mexico’s soybean and rapeseed imports by four percent and seventeen percent, respectively.

FAS/Ottawa forecasts oilseed crush capacity (the estimated maximum rate of crushing at which a mill can operate continuously while maintaining a proper level of efficiency) reached 12.99 million metric tons (MMT) in March 2024 and will reach 15.14 MMT by the end of the 2025 calendar year, up from 11.23 MMT in 2023.

FAS/Managua projects marketing year 2024/25 peanut production to rebound to a record high of 230,000 metric tons on sustained high area planted and improved growing conditions following a damaging El Niño cycle in 2023/24.

Post forecasts that Marketing Year (MY) 2024/25 planted area will expand at a slower growth rate, reaching 45.6 million hectares (ha). Post forecasts MY 2024/25 production at 157.5 million metric tons (MMT), 4.9 MMT more than the revised estimate in MY 2023/24.

Post lowers marketing year (MY) 2023/2024 production to 49.5 million metric tons (MMT), still nearly double last year’s crop, based on a stretch of dry and hot weather in the major production areas despite previous ideal rains following planting.

After the 2023/24 El Niño cycle, fishmeal production in marketing year (MY) 2024/25 is expected to recuperate back to 1.1 million metric tons (MMT), a 39 percent increase compared to the previous year's estimates.

FAS/Sofia’s marketing year (MY) 2023/24 sunflower production estimate is lowered to 1.7 million metric tons (MMT) based on the final harvest data. The sunflower crop suffered from severe and prolonged summer drought and high heat which reduced yields considerably.