Browse Data and Analysis

Bolivia announced on October 19 the approval of Intacta, a new biotech soybean variety with insect resistant Bt and glyphosate resistant traits. Intense drought and more unpredictable weather are disrupting Bolivian farmer livelihoods and they see the Intacta approval as one helpful step towards improved crop productivity and environmental resilience.

Post increases marketing year (MY) 2024/2025 soybean production to reach 52 million metric tons (MMT), up 1 MMT higher than USDA official and Post’s previous estimate on 17.2 million hectares (MHA) harvested as producers shift to more soy away from corn over fears of the impact of corn stunt (leafhopper/Chicharrita) in corn, continued low prices, and expected dry conditions.

Post revises down its Marketing Year (MY) 2023/24 production estimates to 150 million metric tons (MMT) due to (i) the recent floods in Brazil’s southernmost state of Rio Grande do Sul and (ii) lower yields across several states.

During the past few years, the landscape for U.S. renewable diesel production has drastically changed, akin to the growth of ethanol and biodiesel during the past two decades. Driven by federal and state policies aimed at reducing emissions, this dramatic U.S. renewable diesel production and capacity growth is causing significant, market-altering shifts both domestically and to foreign feedstock trade.

Post forecasts Argentina soybean production at 51 million metric tons (MMT) in marketing year (MY) 2024/2025 as production returns to assuming good weather in the year ahead and increased soy planting at the expense of wheat and corn, particularly in late or second crop soy.

Post forecasts Uruguay’s marketing year (MY) 2024/25 soybean up to 3.4 million metric tons (MMT) on increased soy acreage planting, driven by increased acreage in second or late crop soy due to producers fears of another dry year of La Niña weather pattern and potential disease threat to corn, preferring soy over corn.

Mexico’s oilseed crush in marketing year (MY) 2024/25 is forecast to increase due to higher vegetable oil and animal feed demand. Forecast economic growth and lower interest rates are expected to drive production of oil and meal and increase Mexico’s soybean and rapeseed imports by four percent and seventeen percent, respectively.

FAS/Ottawa forecasts oilseed crush capacity (the estimated maximum rate of crushing at which a mill can operate continuously while maintaining a proper level of efficiency) reached 12.99 million metric tons (MMT) in March 2024 and will reach 15.14 MMT by the end of the 2025 calendar year, up from 11.23 MMT in 2023.

Post projects marketing year (MY) 2024/2025 soybean production at 10.3 million metric tons (MMT) with increased planted area of to 3.59 million hectares on increased second crop planting.

Post forecasts that Marketing Year (MY) 2024/25 planted area will expand at a slower growth rate, reaching 45.6 million hectares (ha). Post forecasts MY 2024/25 production at 157.5 million metric tons (MMT), 4.9 MMT more than the revised estimate in MY 2023/24.

Post lowers marketing year (MY) 2023/2024 production to 49.5 million metric tons (MMT), still nearly double last year’s crop, based on a stretch of dry and hot weather in the major production areas despite previous ideal rains following planting.

Post lowers marketing year (MY) 2022/2023 soy production at 20.5 million metric tons (MMT) still below the USDA official on lower than expected harvest area and yields due to drought. Post lowers MY2022/2023 crush to 26 MMT due to decreased exports and the lowest crush operation rates decades during recent months.