Browse Data and Analysis

Feed demand in marketing year (MY) 2024/25 is expected to recover slightly, with a projected total volume of 286.5 million metric tons (MMT). Corn is expected to dominate feed composition due to low prices, replacing wheat and old stock rice.

In MY 2023/2024, Vietnam’s rice production appears to be remained stable compared to previous year. Despite a slight decline in harvested areas because of climate change as drought and salt-instruction. By adjusting the crop calendar and adopting new rice high-yield, disease-tolerance rice varieties have led to higher yields compared to the previous year, thereby, offsetting losses from reduced harvested areas.

Higher feed demand from broiler, aquaculture, and ruminants will push total feed use slightly higher in MY2024/25 with greater corn inclusion into feed rations than previous years. MY2024/25 corn production is forecast larger than MY2023/24 with larger yields.

In 2023, feed demand was low due to weak demand in Europe and the United States for Vietnamese produced aquaculture products. Post expects aquaculture and livestock production to rebound in the in MY 2024/25 increasing overall feed demand and as a result also increasing corn consumption. As domestic corn production remains uncompetitive with foreign imports, corn imports are forecast to grow Wheat imports are forecast to decline due to market volatility.

Feed production is forecast lower on declining demand from poultry and livestock producers. Corn production in MY2024/25 is forecast larger than MY2023/24 due to improved yields and a slightly larger planting area, despite government policies encouraging increased soy area and reduced corn area.

Heavy rainfall in late summer led Post to increase Marketing Year (MY) 2023/24 corn production upwards by 4.2 percent. Post estimates corn feed and residual use at 223 Million Metric Ton (MMT) due to decreasing feed demand and low corn prices.

Information in this report was current as of September 27, 2023. Post forecasts China's MY2023/24 grain feed and residual use to increase slightly and corn production also slightly higher due to a larger planted area and improved yields.

In September, Vietnam's rice export prices declined by 6 percent compared to the previous month with an average export price of USD 617 per ton.

In the first half of 2023, the Vietnam livestock and aquaculture industry faced numerous challenges which reduced feed demand including escalating input costs, African Swine Fever (ASF), market price volatility, weak demand, and intense competition from imported products.

Post forecasts China's MY2023/24 grain feed and residual use to increase slightly and corn production also slightly higher due to a larger planted area and improved yields.

In August, Vietnam's rice export prices surged by 22 percent compared to the previous month, reaching an average of USD 654 per ton.

India, the world’s largest rice exporter, disrupted global rice markets by banning white rice exports in July 2023, before placing an export tax on parboiled rice exports in August 2023.