China: Grain and Feed Update

Heavy rainfall in late summer led Post to increase Marketing Year (MY) 2023/24 corn production upwards by 4.2 percent. Post estimates corn feed and residual use at 223 Million Metric Ton (MMT) due to decreasing feed demand and low corn prices. Corn starch and ethanol production both regained profitability on low input prices. Post forecasts corn imports at a conservative 20 MMT due to increasing prioritization of domestic grain security and farmer and domestic corn trader outcries to protect farm incomes and buy Chinese grain. Wheat production is adjusted down slightly due to overly wet conditions in early summer just before harvest. Wheat is not expected to be price competitive with corn in feed rations for the remainder of MY2023/24. Post forecasts China’s sorghum imports in MY2023/24 will be up only slightly from last year considering price disadvantages compared to barley and corn.