Brazil: Oilseeds and Products Update

Post increased the 2022/23 forecast for soybean planted area expansion to 43.3 million hectares (ha) and soybean production to 153 million metric tons (MMT). This season sowing began optimistically, with most soybeans planted on time compared to last year. However, in the southern part of the country including Rio Grande do Sul and Parana, rains will be needed in January because if continues to be dry, the crop will be negatively impacted. Post revised up its soybean export estimate for 2022/23 to 97 MMT, a new record. Post maintains the 2021/22 harvested area estimate at 40.9 million ha and the production estimate at 126.6 MMT. Post revised up the 2022/23 crush forecast to 51.5 MMT based on available supplies and increased demand for soybean products. Crush demand will ultimately be impacted by the new administration's biofuel mandate policy, which is expected to be decided by March 2023.