Brazil: Grain and Feed Update

Post revised down its 2021/22 forecast corn harvest to 113 million metric tons (MMT) on the account of disappointing first-crop corn volumes. Consequently, the corn export forecast is also lowered to 42 MMT. Meanwhile, imports will remain above average levels, though they will continue to be sourced mostly from the Mercosur trade bloc. Post forecasts wheat production at 7.7 MMT for the 2021/22 season, an increase of over 1.45 MMT from the current season thanks to forecast expansion in the planted area. Wheat imports are projected to rebound after the low volumes registered over the last two seasons. Wheat exports will remain high, thanks to a diverse buyers' base. Post forecasts rice production at 7.9 MMT in 2021/22, a decrease of 100,000 metric tons from the record production in the current season. Unlike corn and wheat, rice exports have been stymied by surging maritime freight costs associated with shipment in containers versus in open vessels.