Browse Data and Analysis

Post forecasts Tanzania’s coffee production at 1.5 million bags (60-kilogram) in the marketing year (MY) 2024/25, up from 1.4 million bags in MY 2023/24, due to increased production from recently rehabilitated plantations.

FAS/Nairobi forecasts Uganda’s coffee production in the Marketing Year (MY) 2024/25 to reach 6.9 million bags (60 kg), an increase of 40,000 bags from the previous year, due to adoption of good agricultural practices, targeted interventions to combat pest and disease outbreaks, and maturation of new high-yielding seedlings planted in recent years.

FAS Nairobi forecasts Kenya’s marketing year (MY) 2024/25 coffee production at 750,000 bags (60 kilograms), a 6.3 percent decrease from the previous marketing year, due to stagnation of harvested area and yield decline.

MY 2023/24 coffee production is forecast to increase 21 percent to 1.35 million bags due to a recovery from drought conditions and trees entering the most productive period of their three-year yield cycle.

Ethiopia is Africa’s largest coffee producer and the world’s fifth largest exporter of Arabica coffee. Coffee is Ethiopia’s number one source of export revenue generating about 30-35 percent of the country’s total export earnings.

Kenya’s marketing year (MY) 2023/24 coffee production is forecast to increase 6.7 percent to 800,000 bags due to a recovery from drought conditions and higher fertilizer application.

FAS/Nairobi forecasts Uganda’s marketing year (MY) 2023/24 coffee production will increase 4 percent to 6.85 million 60 kilogram bags due to good rainfall and the maturation of new high-yielding Robusta seedlings planted in 2019.

Coffee is Ethiopia’s main export commodity, contributing to the livelihoods of more than 15 million smallholder farmers and other actors in the coffee sector. Ethiopia’s coffee production for MY 2022/23 (Oct-Sep) is forecast at 8.25 million 60-kilogram bags (495,000 MT).

MY 2022/23 coffee production is expected to decrease 4 percent to 1.15 million bags due to high fertilizer prices and dry conditions at the beginning of the marketing year. Post forecasts MY 2022/23 exports will decline 4 percent to 1.05 million bags due to lower exportable supplies.

Kenya’s MY2022/23 coffee production is forecast to decrease by 10 percent to 700,000 bags due to lower yields caused by reduced fertilizer application. MY 2022/23 area planted is anticipated to remain flat at 105,000 hectares as new plantings are curtailed by a shortage of coffee seeds.

FAS/Nairobi forecasts an increase in Uganda’s marketing year (MY) 2022/23 coffee production to a new record of 6.65 million bags due to favorable weather and recently established plantations coming into full production. Arabica production is anticipated to decrease by 5.2 percent to 900,000 bags due to cyclical yield variation.

In marketing year 2021/2022 (MY21/22 Oct - Sept) strong demand for imported coffee products is expected to increase imports to 4 million 60-kilogram (KG) bags green been equivalent (GBE), a 5 percent increase over MY20/21 imports.