Browse Data and Analysis

On October 17, 2024, the Tariff Changes Committee (CAT) of the Chamber of Foreign Trade (Camex) rejected the request made by the Brazilian Association of Fuel Importers (ABICOM) and the U.S. Grains Council to remove the 18 percent tariff on ethanol imports to Brazil.

Brazil is the world’s second-largest ethanol and third-largest biodiesel producer but has yet to introduce renewable diesel or sustainable aviation fuel. Post forecasts total ethanol production at 32.5 billion liters in CY 2024, with cane ethanol forecast at 25.5 billion liters and corn ethanol production at seven billion liters.

With a new government in place since December 2023, the biofuels sector is projected to move on to a freer business environment through less limitations and official controls. Changes are expected to come through a new biofuels law or reforms to the current one in place since 2021.

Colombia’s ethanol consumption in 2024 is projected to increase to 728 million liters, mainly owing to the government’s restored 10 percent ethanol mandate (E10). Heightened ethanol demand is expected to be met through imports, primarily from the United States, despite the countervailing duty on U.S. fuel ethanol.

During the past few years, the landscape for U.S. renewable diesel production has drastically changed, akin to the growth of ethanol and biodiesel during the past two decades. Driven by federal and state policies aimed at reducing emissions, this dramatic U.S. renewable diesel production and capacity growth is causing significant, market-altering shifts both domestically and to foreign feedstock trade.

On January 5, 2024, The Secretariat of Agriculture, Livestock and Fisheries of the Ministry of Economy authorized for the first time the commercialization of four genetically modified (GM) yeasts to enhance bioethanol production through grain fermentation. Industry supports this decision and expects it to help pave the way for a cleaner and more sustainable future in fuels.

Peruvian total ethanol production in 2023 is forecast at 220 million liters, increasing 8 percent compared to the previous year. Total ethanol consumption for 2023 is forecast at 285 million liters.

Total Brazilian ethanol production for 2023 is estimated at 32.95 billion liters, an increase of seven percent relative to 2022 due to the expected increase in sugarcane production and the steady increase in corn ethanol production.

Bioethanol consumption in 2023 is forecast at 1.17 billion liters, the highest on record, because of strong gasoline demand and a high blend rate.

Canada’s Clean Fuel Regulation (CFR) became law on July 6, 2022. It aims to reduce the carbon intensity of liquid transportation fuels and has the potential to increase the use of low carbon-intensity diesel by an additional 2.2 billion liters and the use of ethanol by an additional 700 million liters by 2030 under the CFR, according to the federal government.

In 2023, ethanol production is forecast to recover to 380 million liters due to better weather conditions. In 2022, ethanol production decreased as adverse weather conditions and high sugar prices led to local producers prioritizing sugar production.

The 2023 U.S. Agricultural Export Yearbook provides a statistical summary of U.S. agricultural commodity exports to the world during the 2023 calendar year.