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Hot and dry conditions in the autumn and winter of 2024 led to a drop in the production of South African sugar cane. This is expected to translate into a slight decrease in sugar production and exports.

China’s MY 2024/25 sugar production is forecast at 11 MMT, up 600,000 MT as acreage for both cane and beet are up and competition crops are less profitable.

On July 19, 2024, the South African government published a new sugar import tariff of R1,093 per metric ton (US$60.09/MT). This tariff change was triggered by a downward trend in global sugar prices and will apply to sugar imported into the Southern Africa Customs Union (SACU).

While the United States holds a 5-year average of less than 1 percent market share ($20.7 million in 2023 exports), Senegal has a growing food manufacturing industry that seeks cost-competitive ingredients and is expanding its exports to neighboring countries.

Kenya’s sugar production is expected to increase 40 percent in marketing year (MY) 2024/25 to 750,000 metric tons (MT) due to an increase in area harvested after the expiration of a ban on sugarcane harvesting issued by Kenya’s Agriculture and Food Authority (AFA).

China’s MY 2024/25 sugar production is forecast at 10.4 MMT as the planted areas for both cane and beet are expected to rise. Given sugar prices are expected to trend down, China’s MY 2024/25 sugar consumption estimate is also forecast to increase to 15.7 MMT.

Post expects sugar cane production in MY 2024/25 to show modest growth on carry-over cane and slight increase in harvested area. Sugar production is forecast to improve on slight increase in cane deliveries. The sugar industry effected notional price hikes of white and brown sugar which translated to increases in retail prices of sugar.

FAS-Lagos forecasts a 6 percent decrease in raw sugar imports in marketing year (MY) 2024/25 due to the scarcity of foreign exchange and the projected decrease in consumption.

Eswatini sugar cane production in MY 2023/24 was affected by unfavorable climatic conditions and proliferation of the yellow aphid leaf. This affected cane production and quality resulting to the season ending earlier than normal.

Cane production in Zimbabwe is forecast to increase in MY 2024/25, as major dams have sufficient volumes to supply irrigation water to cane-producing regions. Production will also be supported by carry-over cane due to the late start to the MY 2023/24 harvests after a contractual dispute between growers and millers.

Post forecasts South African raw sugar production at 2.17 million MT in MY 2023/24, up 9 percent from 2 million MT in MY 2022/23, based on an increase in the quantity of cane delivered to the mills and consistent milling efficiencies.

MY 2022/23 China’s sugar imports declined due to escalating world prices. Following suit, Chinese sugar prices spiked at the highest levels since 2012.