Browse Data and Analysis

Post increases marketing year (MY) 2024/2025 soybean production to reach 52 million metric tons (MMT), up 1 MMT higher than USDA official and Post’s previous estimate on 17.2 million hectares (MHA) harvested as producers shift to more soy away from corn over fears of the impact of corn stunt (leafhopper/Chicharrita) in corn, continued low prices, and expected dry conditions.

Côte d’Ivoire ranks as Africa’s second largest producer of crude palm oil (CPO); trailing just behind Nigeria’s production, it is a pivotal player in the sub-Saharan regional market.

Côte d'Ivoire is one of the leading producers of palm oil in Africa, with annual production exceeding 500,000 metric tons since 2018. The country consumes over 75% of its palm oil production domestically, with palm oil being a staple for 90% of the population. The high domestic demand for palm oil outstrips supply, creating intense competition for fresh fruit bunches (FFB).

Post forecasts Argentina soybean production at 51 million metric tons (MMT) in marketing year (MY) 2024/2025 as production returns to assuming good weather in the year ahead and increased soy planting at the expense of wheat and corn, particularly in late or second crop soy.

Post forecasts that South Africa’s oilseed area will be maintained at elevated levels in marketing year 2024/25. South Africa’s summer rainfall oilseed crops in marketing year 2023/24 have been affected by an El Niño induced mid-summer drought, resulting in an expected major drop in crop volumes, creating an optimistic outlook for higher crop area in marketing year 2024/25.

Post lowers marketing year (MY) 2023/2024 production to 49.5 million metric tons (MMT), still nearly double last year’s crop, based on a stretch of dry and hot weather in the major production areas despite previous ideal rains following planting.

Post estimates that South Africa will produce a record rapeseed (locally called canola) crop of 220,000 metric tons in marketing year 2023/24.

Post lowers its 2022/2023 estimate for Argentine soybean production to 23.9 million metric tons (MMT). This production estimate is the lowest in 24 year and the yield estimate is the lowest in almost 50 years. As a result of the drought, Post estimates that Argentina will need to import a record 11 MMT of soybeans to achieve a crush of 29.5 MMT.

Marketing year (MY) 2022/23 palm kernel production is forecast at 62,000 metric tons (MT), down by about nine percent compared to Post’s MY2021/22 projection. This is mainly because of an annual three-month drought period (December-February) that negatively affects FFB yield, and consequently kernel yield.

Nigeria continues to strive for self-sufficiency in oil palm production. Currently, production remains stable. Meanwhile, demand for palm oil outweighs supply. Nigeria meets the supply gap in oil palm through imports from Malaysia, China, and Côte d’Ivoire.

For marketing year (MY) 2022/23 Post projects a recovery in Argentine soybean planted acreage to 17 million hectares (HA) resulting in 51 million metric tons (MMT) of soybean production as farmers shift acreage out of cereal crops that require more fertilizer. MY 2022/23 sunflowerseed planted acreage is projected up at 2 million HA, with total production estimated at 4 MMT in response to high prices.

The 2021 U.S. Agricultural Export Yearbook provides a statistical summary of U.S. agricultural commodity exports to the world.