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Post forecasts that South Africa’s oilseed area will be maintained at elevated levels in marketing year 2024/25. South Africa’s summer rainfall oilseed crops in marketing year 2023/24 have been affected by an El Niño induced mid-summer drought, resulting in an expected major drop in crop volumes, creating an optimistic outlook for higher crop area in marketing year 2024/25.

Post estimates that South Africa will produce a record rapeseed (locally called canola) crop of 220,000 metric tons in marketing year 2023/24.

The Black Sea region is a significant supplier of agricultural commodities to the world. Over the past year, global grain and oilseed markets have been roiled by the ongoing military conflict in Ukraine.

A number of factors have converged over the last 18 months to send global agricultural commodity prices to near-record levels. Russia’s invasion of Ukraine – and the potential loss of Ukrainian exports – was the latest development to push commodity prices higher.

South Africa experienced an upward trend in oilseed production (soybeans and sunflower seeds) driven largely by rising oilseed prices, higher yielding cultivars, and a local demand-pull from investments in new oilseed processing plants.

A package of export restricting measures aimed at the oilseeds market is expected to dampen the trend of increasing oilseed production in Russia.

Post predicts that South Africa’s positive trend in soybean plantings will continue in the 2021/22 MY in line increased local crushing capacity.

As part of its package of measures to reduce food prices adopted in December 2020, the Russian government issued a number of decrees to restrict exports of some grains and oilseeds...

EEC authorities plan to extend the current restriction on exports of sunflower seeds outside EAEU countries through August 31, 2020 in order to “stabilize prices for sunflower oilseeds...

In MY 2020/21, the oilseed segment of the Russian agricultural sector will see continued growth in production of sunflower seeds, in particular, as well as soybeans.

In the 2020/21 MY, Post forecasts that South Africa's oilseed meal imports will drop by 8 percent to 550,000 tons and oilseed oil imports will decline by 5 percent to less than 400,000 tons...

FAS/Moscow forecasts that in MY 2019/20 the production of three major oilseed crops in Russia will total 18.87 MMT and thus remain at the MY 2018/19 level, with soybeans and rapeseeds...