Browse Data and Analysis

With the expected end of the El Niño weather phenomenon, which severely impacted corn productivity this 2023/24 harvest, Post forecasts a year-on-year increase in corn production for MY 2024/25 (March 2025 – February 2026) at 127 MMT.

Brazil consumes over 12 million tons of wheat and wheat-based products per year, which is more than the country's national production of roughly 9.5 million tons.

In MY 2024/25, milled rice production is projected to reach 1.2 million metric tons (MMT), reflecting a five percent increase from MY 2023/24. Post estimates milled rice production for MY 2023/24 at 1.14 MMT, a three percent increase compared to the MY 2022/23 estimate of 1.1 MMT.

Despite initially optimistic projections for the 2023/24 harvest, the El Niño has negatively impacted the corn and wheat crops. As a result, Post estimates corn production in MY 2023/24 will decrease to 122 MMT.

Brazil has recently started planting its corn crop for the 2023/24 season. However, due to high production costs and lower expected earnings, profit margins are under pressure. As a result, Post predicts a decrease in planted area, with production for the next season estimated to drop from 135 MMT (MY 2022/23) to 130 MMT (MY 2023/24).

With Brazil continuing to produce record corn crops, Post forecasts corn production for MY 2023/24 at 131 MMT, up 1.6 percent from the current season. However, falling profit margins and ongoing infrastructure and logistics hurdles may impact the next harvest’s outcome.

Brazilian corn and wheat productions continue to exceed expectations, setting record-breaking harvests. In contrast, Brazil is expected to produce its lowest rice crop in 25 years due to a period of prolonged drought in the south and low profitability for farmers.

Brazil is set for another record-breaking grain harvest. Post maintains its corn planted area forecast at 22.5 million hectares for MY 2022/2023 and corn production is forecast at 125.5 MMT for MY 2022/2023, up 8 percent from the estimated 116 MMT for MY 2021/2022.

Post forecasts 2022/2023 corn production at a record 126 million metric tons (MMT) based on the growing demand and price for corn both in domestic and international market. This is up 8.6 percent on the 2021/2022 production estimated at 116 MMT.

Post increased its corn production forecast for Marketing Year (MY) 2022/23 to 120 million metric tons (MMT) based on strong demand, increased prices in the domestic and international markets, and diminishing uncertainty over the availability of fertilizers. For MY 2021/22, Brazil’s corn planted area is set to reach new records.

Next season, Post forecasts corn area to expand by one million hectares (ha), to a total of 22.5 million ha, and production to top 118 million metric tons (MMT). The wheat planted area will grow to 3.4 million ha, with production reaching nearly 9 MMT.

Post revised down its 2021/22 forecast corn harvest to 113 million metric tons (MMT) on the account of disappointing first-crop corn volumes. Consequently, the corn export forecast is also lowered to 42 MMT.