Browse Data and Analysis

Turkiye’s overall production of grain for marketing year (MY) 2024/25 is forecast to drop year-over-year due to drier-than-normal weather conditions across most of the country.

Ukraine’s wheat, barley, and rye harvest for marketing year (MY) 2024/25 has concluded. MY2024/25 corn production is smaller due to lower yields. Post estimates MY2024/25 beginning stocks for grains at minimal levels, as Ukraine was able to maintain an independent export corridor out of its Odesa region ports for most of MY2023/24.

Imports of wheat, rice, and corn in marketing year (MY) 2024/25 are estimated to increase as the economy stabilizes, inflation decreases, and the government implements a temporary zero-duty import policy for the afore-mentioned commodities until December 31.

FAS/Sofia has revised downward its estimate for Bulgaria’s MY 2024/25 corn crop to 2.2 million metric tons (MMT), which if realized would be the smallest crop in over a decade. This is due to severe summer heat and drought in July and in early August.

Ukraine’s marketing year (MY)2023/24 has concluded for wheat, barley, and rye, but is still ongoing for corn. Ukraine established a stable export corridor in the Black Sea, allowing its major marine ports (Odesa, Chornomorsk, and Pivdenny) to keep grain exports flowing at rates slightly higher than in MY2022/23.

EU grain production in MY 2024/25 is expected to decline from last year’s levels due to a combination of smaller area planted to grains and lower yields affecting all grains except for barley and oats.

Dry weather conditions between April and June in Turkiye’s grain-growing regions have resulted in decreased production forecasts for Marketing Year (MY) 2024/25. The Turkish government recently announced procurement prices for wheat and barley, as...

As of June 6, 2024, Turkiye has announced the suspension of wheat imports under the Inward Processing Regime from June 21-October 15, 2024. It also liberalized exports of milling wheat, durum wheat, and barley. In the same announcement, the Turkish Grain Board (TMO) announced new intervention prices for wheat and barley.

Bulgaria has enjoyed favorable weather so far in MY 2024/25 that has supported the positive development of both winter and spring grains. Currently, FAS/Sofia estimates the MY 2024/25 wheat crop at 6.9 million metric tons (MMT), slightly above last year's crop.

Serbia’s Marketing Year (MY) 2024/25 wheat area is forecast at 625,000 hectares (HA), 14 percent lower than the previous year. If the predicted yield of 5 MT/HA is achieved, wheat production is expected to reach 3.1 Million Metric Tons (MMT).

In MY 2024/25, EU grain production is anticipated to exceed the previous season’s levels and amount to 274 MMT. Excessive rain currently prevails in the EU’s northwest, hampering winter grains development and impeding spring planting operations.

The UK is forecast to have one of the lowest grain crops on record in MY 2024/25 following challenging winter planting conditions, a very wet winter, and continued rains now disrupting crop management and spring plantings. Not only is this expected to significantly reduce the planted area, but also average yields.