Browse Data and Analysis

FAS/Tokyo estimates lower wheat and barley production in Marketing Year (MY)2024/25 from the previous year as unfavorable weather conditions and disease outbreak have reduced yields in main production regions.

In 2023, feed demand was low due to weak demand in Europe and the United States for Vietnamese produced aquaculture products. Post expects aquaculture and livestock production to rebound in the in MY 2024/25 increasing overall feed demand and as a result also increasing corn consumption. As domestic corn production remains uncompetitive with foreign imports, corn imports are forecast to grow Wheat imports are forecast to decline due to market volatility.

FAS/Tokyo forecasts an increase in corn imports and consumption in MY2023/24 and MY2024/25 due to softening global prices and the rebound of the layer population following the recovery of Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza outbreaks.

In the first half of 2023, the Vietnam livestock and aquaculture industry faced numerous challenges which reduced feed demand including escalating input costs, African Swine Fever (ASF), market price volatility, weak demand, and intense competition from imported products.

FAS/Tokyo estimates lower MY2023/24 rice production in Japan as extremely high temperatures and little rain are expected to lower yield and quality.

Growth in Vietnam’s economy, including a rebound in tourism, is expected to fuel protein demands which will increase demand for feed grains in Market Year (MY) 2023/24. Post forecasts feed demand up to 27.7 million metric tons (MMT), a three percent year on year increase.

On March 20, Japan’s Ministry of Health, Labour, and Welfare (MHLW) and Ministry of Agriculture, Forestry, and Fisheries (MAFF) added a waxy corn product to their lists of genome edited products not subject to regulations for genetically engineered food, feed, and biodiversity.

FAS/Tokyo projects reduced corn imports and feed consumption in MY2022/23 due to large outbreaks of Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza as well as increased competition from domestic feed rice, followed by a recovery of corn consumption in MY2023/24.

FY2022 agricultural exports reach record levels.

High production costs, price instability and lingering disease threats discouraged livestock production which has kept overall 2022 feed demand flat compared to the previous year. Due to high corn prices as well as flat feed demand, Post revises its marketing year (MY) 2021/22 corn consumption down to 13.80 million metric tons (MMT) and imports down to 9.20 MMT.

The 2021 U.S. Agricultural Export Yearbook provides a statistical summary of U.S. agricultural commodity exports to the world.

FAS Tokyo projects Japan’s overall demand for feed grain to remain robust in MY2021/22 and MY2022/23 as livestock production expands. FAS Tokyo anticipates corn imports to decrease in MY2021/22 and MY2022/23 as feed millers increase the ratio of low-cost rice at the expense of corn in compound feed.