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No significant changes were made to the 2024/25 wheat supply and demand forecasts. Wheat imports and exports remain banned. The 2024/25 rice production forecast is unchanged at a record 10 million tons.

Reflecting recently released government of Pakistan official data, the 2024/25 wheat production estimate is increased to a record 31.4 million tons.

Given record area and prospects for good yields, wheat production in 2024/25 is forecast to be a record 28.8 million tons. Due to an anticipated increase in area, 2024/25 rice production is also forecast to set a record.

Corn exports in 2023/24 are forecast to reach 1.5 million tons. The good harvest and decrease in poultry feed demand resulted in a large exportable surplus at competitive prices. Vietnam, Malaysia, and Sri Lanka are the top destinations. Feed consumption in 2023/24 is reduced from 7.7 to 6.6 million tons.

No significant changes are made to 2023/24 rice and wheat supply and demand forecasts. Private sector wheat import commitments of about 1.4 million tons underpin the 2 million ton 2023/24 wheat import forecast.

Based on the export pace through the first 10 months of the year, the 2022/23 rice export estimate is reduced from 3.7 to 3.4 million tons.

Based on the Government of Pakistan’s (GOP) first official assessment, the 2023/24 wheat production forecast is increased to a record 28.0 million tons.

Despite a slight reduction in planted area, 2023/2024 wheat production is forecast to reach 27.0 million tons, two percent higher than last year. With consumption growth expected to outstrip the increase in production, 2023/24 wheat imports are forecast to reach 2.6 million tons.

Based on total commitments to date (imports plus outstanding purchases), the 2022/23 import forecast is reduced from 3 to 2.6 million tons. With the impact of the summer’s floods proving to be even worse than initially anticipated, the 2022/23 rice production estimate is decreased to 6 million tons. As a result of the expectations for lower domestic supplies, 2022/23 rice exports are also lowered to 3.6 million tons.

Due to the impact of the recent flooding, the 2022/23 rice production forecast is lowered to 8.3 million tons. With a slow-down in exports during July and August, plus the recent flooding causing a pause in export activities, marketing year 2021/22 rice exports are lowered to 4.5 million tons.

Based on the government’s international procurement intentions, the 2022/23 wheat import forecast is increased from 2.0 to 2.5 million tons (MMT). Due to water shortages in key producing areas during the early planting season, the rice production forecast for 2022/23 (November-October) is reduced from 9.0 to 8.6 MMT.

Due to lower area and yields, wheat production in 2022/23 is forecast at 26.4 million metric tons (MMT), four percent lower than last year. To make up for the expected domestic shortfall, in 2022/23 wheat imports are forecast at 1.5 MMT.