Browse Data and Analysis

Due to lower area and yields, wheat production in 2022/23 is forecast at 26.4 million metric tons (MMT), four percent lower than last year. To make up for the expected domestic shortfall, in 2022/23 wheat imports are forecast at 1.5 MMT.

Peruvian wheat production in MY 2022/2023 is forecast at 220,000 MT. Wheat imports in MY 2022/2023 are forecast at 2.25 MMT. Corn production in MY 2022/2023 is forecast at 1.7 MMT.

Kenya MY2022/23 corn production is forecast at 3.2 million metric tons (MMT), largely unchanged from MY2021/22 due to high fertilizer prices and farmers switching to alternative crops such as sugarcane.

FAS Tel Aviv (Post) forecasts Israel’s wheat imports to reach 1.74 million metric tons (MMT) in market year (MY) 2022/23, a 2 percent increase from Post’s MY 2021/22 figure. In MY 2021/22, U.S. wheat accounted for 8.2 percent of the market, up 55 percent from the previous year.

FAS Tokyo projects Japan’s overall demand for feed grain to remain robust in MY2021/22 and MY2022/23 as livestock production expands. FAS Tokyo anticipates corn imports to decrease in MY2021/22 and MY2022/23 as feed millers increase the ratio of low-cost rice at the expense of corn in compound feed.

Mexico’s corn, wheat, and sorghum production in marketing year (MY) 2022/23 are forecast marginally lower than the previous year due to rising input costs, reduced government support, and expected adverse weather conditions from La Nina.

This report updates GAIN report number MX2022-0008 published January 10, 2022: Mexico to Update NOM-187 Regarding Some Products Derived from Wheat and Corn.

The prospects for MY2022/23 winter grain crops remain favorable due to the relatively mild winter, sufficient soil moisture reserves, and snow cover. Higher input costs, however, may have a negative impact on the average yields due to expected lower application of inputs.

Post revised down its 2021/22 forecast corn harvest to 113 million metric tons (MMT) on the account of disappointing first-crop corn volumes. Consequently, the corn export forecast is also lowered to 42 MMT.

Post forecasts a 31-percent increase in Thai rice exports and a 17-percent decline in corn imports.

China’s overall feed production is projected to rise through the end of calendar year 2022.

The Turkish government continues its efforts to rein in inflation, which was made worse in recent months by the steep depreciation of the Turkish Lira against the US dollar and drought-related grain production losses in MY 2021/22.