Browse Data and Analysis

Wheat consumption in Haiti in Marketing Year (MY) 2022/23 (July 2022/June 2023) is forecast at 280,000 metric tons (MT), up 1 percent compared to the previous period.

While the UK exited the shadow of Brexit and COVID-19 in marketing year (MY)2021/22 and put the 40-year low wheat crop of MY2020/21 behind it, the developments in Ukraine over the past few months have brought new uncertainties to the market.

In marketing year (MY) 2022/23, production of grains is forecast to increase 30 percent year-over-year on an increase in area planted to spring wheat, durum, and oats, and on the assumption of improved soil moisture conditions resulting in higher yields. However, dry conditions persist in Alberta and Western Saskatchewan and many farmers are behind in their planting schedule, due to unfavorable planting conditions.

EU’s total grain production for MY 2022/23 is anticipated to amount to 286 MMT, down from the 293 MMT registered the previous season. The favorable growing conditions across the EU are not anticipated to counter the reduction expected in area planted to grains.

Wheat exports in marketing year (MY) 2022/2023 are forecast down at 12.6 million metric tons (MMT), as result of a smaller acreage and lower productivity. Meanwhile, barley exports are projected up at 3.7 MMT, which would be the largest on record.

Wheat production in Ethiopia for 2022/23 projected at a record level of 5.7 million MT while corn forecasted to 10.2 million MT. The Government of Ethiopia (GOE) has identified top priorities that can increase production and productivity of cereals through small and large-scale irrigation development, financing agricultural inputs, encouraging cluster farming, and reducing post-harvest loss.

The Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) chart by region as of March 10, 2022, shows a normal vegetation index on the Mediterranean coast and a below normal NDVI in the high lands. The Algerian government again increased domestic procurement prices of grains from farmers to encourage production and grain collection.

FAS Rangoon (Post) forecasts Burma’s rice and corn exports larger in MY 2022/23 due to strong demand from African, EU, and ASEAN countries. Post forecasts Burma’s wheat imports down in MY 2022/23 due to low domestic demand, restrictions on buying of foreign currency, and changing import policies.

With improved weather conditions, wheat, barley, and rice production are forecast to increase in MY 2022/23. In contrast, corn production is forecast down as farmers switch to other more profitable crops. Overall grain production in MY 2022/23 will be influenced by rising input costs, which the Turkish government is trying to offset with higher support payments for fertilizer and diesel.

Post revised its Marketing Year 2021/2022 (MY21/22) estimates of the Cambodia rice harvested area and production at 3,335 thousand hectares (THA) and 9.61 million metric tons (MMT), higher than the USDA official numbers.

Guatemala continues to be a net importer of both yellow corn and rice. Corn area and production in MY2022/2023 are forecast to shrink one percent as some commercial farmers have decided not to plant corn given record high increases of more than 100 percent in fertilizer costs (mainly urea) and a nearly 90 percent increase in oil prices.

Paraguayan wheat exports in marketing year (MY) 2022/2023 are forecast up at 280,000 metric tons as a result of a projected larger production of 1 million metric tons (MMT). Post projects a similar acreage, but somewhat higher yields. Exports of corn...