Browse Data and Analysis

High commodity prices in the international market during the last term of 2022 are expected to impede the growth of 2022/23 Indonesian wheat imports and curb the use of wheat in feed formulation.

Wheat production in marketing year (MY) 2023-2024 is forecast to remain flat at 1.2 million metric tons. Production will remain flat despite a larger harvested area as Post projects a return to trend from high yields in the previous season.

Post forecasts MY 2023/24 wheat production at 3.3 million metric tons (MMT) and barley production at 1.4 MMT, in line with the previous season as climatic conditions are similar.

FAS Tel Aviv (Post) forecasts Israel’s wheat imports to reach 1.70 million metric tons (MMT) in marketing year (MY) 2023/24, a 2.8 percent decrease from Post’s MY 2022/23 figure.

Due to continued elevated agricultural input costs, Mexico’s corn production in marketing year (MY) 2023/24 is forecast at 27.4 million metric tons (MMT), unchanged from the year prior. Lower than expected planting intentions data accounts for slightly lower rice and wheat production forecasts.

FAS/Nairobi forecasts an increase in corn and wheat production in marketing year (MY) 2023/24, to 3.18 million metric tons (MT) and 310,000 MT respectively due to increases in harvested area as farmers respond to high crop prices by planting more wheat and corn.

MY 2023/24 corn production is anticipated to increase roughly 3 percent to 6.1 million metric tons (MT) as more farmers switch to corn production in response to high prices. Post anticipates production will remain below historical levels due to high fertilizer prices and fall army worm outbreaks.

FAS/Tokyo projects reduced corn imports and feed consumption in MY2022/23 due to large outbreaks of Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza as well as increased competition from domestic feed rice, followed by a recovery of corn consumption in MY2023/24.

In marketing year (MY) 2023/24, Colombia's corn and rice production are forecast to marginally increase driven by higher domestic prices and expected normalized weather conditions. However, high production costs continue to be a challenge for Colombian producers.

Post forecasts that MY2023/24 rice production will reach a five-year record of 20.4 million metric tons due to abundant water supplies and attractive farm-gate prices.

In 2022, the Government of Ecuador continued to support floor prices for local production of corn, rice, and wheat as well as began subsidizing the price of fertilizers for small producers.

Post forecasts that consumption and imports of corn, wheat and rice in Malaysia will slightly increase in Marketing Year (MY) 2023/24, in line with population growth and normalization of the market.