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Canadian apple production is forecast to grow four percent for market year (MY) 2022/23, as production rebounds in Ontario and Quebec following adverse growing conditions in MY 2021/22. Pear production is forecast to grow on a bumper crop in Ontario, especially of the Bartlett variety.

Overall, Mexico’s market year (MY) 2022/23 deciduous fruit production is projected to remain steady year-to-year, with apple production increasing marginally by 1 percent, but from what is estimated to be a small MY 2021/22 crop.

Brazil is the fourth-largest export destination for U.S. agricultural and processed products in South America and depends on international suppliers to meet its demand for food processing ingredients, especially specialty products with high added value. These products offer significant opportunities for U.S. companies to supply Brazilian food manufacturers looking to meet the needs of a growing health-conscious consumer market.

In marketing year (MY) 2022/23, Post estimates that avocado production will decrease by 18.2 percent from MY 2021/22, totaling 180,000 metric tons (MT) due to frost. Domestic avocado consumption will reach 105,000 MT in MY 2022/23, a five percent increase over MY 2021/22.

China’s avocado production and imports are estimated to grow as the demand for high-quality fresh avocados continue to rise. Top consumers are females, under 35 years of age, and residing in first-tier cities.

The outlook for the 2022/23 apple season in New Zealand is much more optimistic with the opening of international borders following COVID-19 restrictions. While the last two apple harvests were severely impacted by the lack of labor, the return of overseas workers under the Recognized Seasonal Employer (RSE) scheme is expected to help allow a recovery in production, with the forecast up 12 percent from the previous year’s estimated crop.

Owing to favorable growing conditions and ongoing investments to improve on-farm yields, Turkey’s production and export of apples, pears, and table grapes is forecast at or near record levels in MY 2022/23. At least 80 percent of the projected production of these deciduous fruits will be consumed in Turkey, mainly as fresh fruit.

Morocco has become the 15th-largest fruit exporter in the world by value. According to the most recent estimates (2019) by the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO), 66 percent of its land area is devoted to agriculture, with more than 7 percent devoted to fruit production.

On November 4, 2022, the Korea Agro-Fisheries & Food Trade Corporation (aT) announced the results of the 2022 U.S. orange tariff rate quota (TRQ) allocations. Korea switched to a new license allocation system this year, replacing the import rights auction process used in prior years. A key piece of the new allocation system is that 80 percent of the total TRQ is reserved for importers with historical import volumes, while the remaining 20 percent is reserved for new importers.

Grape production in Peru is forecast to reach 766,000 metric tons (MT) in marketing year (MY) 2022/2023, an increase of seven percent compared to the previous year. Domestic consumption of fresh grapes is forecast at 186,000 MT in MY 2022/2023, a six percent increase from MY 2021/22. Peruvian grape exports are forecast to reach a record of 586,000 MT in MY 2022/2023, eight percent higher than the previous year. The United States will continue to be the lead export market.

China’s apple and pear production is expected to drop by 11 percent and 5 percent, respectively, on year to 41 MMT and 17.85 MMT in MY 2022/23, because of weather abnormalities and farmers reducing acreage of bearing trees. Table grape production is estimated to continue increasing by 5 percent to 12.6 MMT on improved crop management. Apple imports will likely rebound strongly due to consumer demand for new varieties developed by major suppliers. Table grape imports will further decline because of the improved quantity and quality of domestic supplies.

In marketing year (MY) 2022/23, FAS Santiago estimates that table grape production will decrease by 7.1 percent reaching 732,000 metric tons (MT) and exports will decrease by 7.1 percent, totaling 565,000 metric tons.