Browse Data and Analysis

Peru's grain production has been impacted by a prolonged drought in 2022 and flooding in March 2023, mostly affecting corn and rice. Wheat imports in MY 2023/2024 are forecast at 2.25 MMT.

South Africa is on course to produce a fourth consecutive bumper corn crop in MY 2022/23, which creates a bearish outlook on local corn prices and will limit growth in the area to be planted with corn in MY2023/24.

Despite a slight reduction in planted area, 2023/2024 wheat production is forecast to reach 27.0 million tons, two percent higher than last year. With consumption growth expected to outstrip the increase in production, 2023/24 wheat imports are forecast to reach 2.6 million tons.

For marketing year (MY) 2023/24, Post forecasts rice harvested area and production at 11.9 million hectares and 37.1 million metric tons (MT), respectively. Post forecasts MY 2023/24 wheat imports at 6.0 million MT, with corn imports at 2.4 million MT.

In marketing year (MY) 2023/24, Post forecasts wheat area harvested will reach 215,000 hectares (ha) and production will total 1.32 million metric tons (MMT), unchanged from MY 2022/23 as production was limited by the high costs of inputs.

High commodity prices in the international market during the last term of 2022 are expected to impede the growth of 2022/23 Indonesian wheat imports and curb the use of wheat in feed formulation.

Wheat production in marketing year (MY) 2023-2024 is forecast to remain flat at 1.2 million metric tons. Production will remain flat despite a larger harvested area as Post projects a return to trend from high yields in the previous season.

The Philippines maintains a Tariff Rate Quota (TRQ) for corn (H.S. 1005). Following the reduction of tariffs in 2022 and their extension in 2023, significant interest in how to access the in-quota tariff ensued, and in turn, so followed widespread concern among local stakeholders for the process being anti-competitive, outdated, and potentially inconsistent with the Philippines' commitments with trading partners.

FAS Tel Aviv (Post) forecasts Israel’s wheat imports to reach 1.70 million metric tons (MMT) in marketing year (MY) 2023/24, a 2.8 percent decrease from Post’s MY 2022/23 figure.

Due to continued elevated agricultural input costs, Mexico’s corn production in marketing year (MY) 2023/24 is forecast at 27.4 million metric tons (MMT), unchanged from the year prior. Lower than expected planting intentions data accounts for slightly lower rice and wheat production forecasts.

FAS/Nairobi forecasts an increase in corn and wheat production in marketing year (MY) 2023/24, to 3.18 million metric tons (MT) and 310,000 MT respectively due to increases in harvested area as farmers respond to high crop prices by planting more wheat and corn.

MY 2023/24 corn production is anticipated to increase roughly 3 percent to 6.1 million metric tons (MT) as more farmers switch to corn production in response to high prices. Post anticipates production will remain below historical levels due to high fertilizer prices and fall army worm outbreaks.