Browse Data and Analysis

Post revised its Vietnam marketing year 2022/2023 (MY 2022/23) coffee production estimate down to 29.750 million bags, green bean equivalent (GBE), based on lower yields, high production costs, and a drop in cultivation area.

MY 2023/24 coffee production is forecast to increase 21 percent to 1.35 million bags due to a recovery from drought conditions and trees entering the most productive period of their three-year yield cycle.

Ethiopia is Africa’s largest coffee producer and the world’s fifth largest exporter of Arabica coffee. Coffee is Ethiopia’s number one source of export revenue generating about 30-35 percent of the country’s total export earnings.

FAS/Managua projects Nicaraguan Arabica coffee production to remain mostly flat in marketing year 2023/24 at 2.46 million 60-kilogram bags, reflecting successive years of sub-optimal fertilizer application dating back to 2020 when fertilizer prices rose amid global supply chain disruptions and new taxes on agricultural inputs.

FAS/San José is projecting a small marketing year 2023/24 production increase to 1.44 million 60-kilogram bags, based on positive initial flowering, expected appropriate fertilization levels, and better overall condition of farms.

Post forecasts Indonesia coffee production at 9.7 million bags in 2023/24, a decline of 18 percent from the previous year as excessive rainfall disrupted the cherry development stage, lowering yield in major Robusta producing areas.

Kenya’s marketing year (MY) 2023/24 coffee production is forecast to increase 6.7 percent to 800,000 bags due to a recovery from drought conditions and higher fertilizer application.

The United States remains the top export market for Mexican coffee, including green, roasted, and soluble coffee.

FAS/Nairobi forecasts Uganda’s marketing year (MY) 2023/24 coffee production will increase 4 percent to 6.85 million 60 kilogram bags due to good rainfall and the maturation of new high-yielding Robusta seedlings planted in 2019.

In marketing year (MY) 2023/24, Colombian coffee production is forecast to increase by 3 percent to 11.6 million bags of green bean equivalent (GBE) coffee driven by improving weather conditions, which have hurt production over the past two years.

Coffee production in marketing year (MY) 2023/2024 (April/March) is forecast at 4.2 million 60- kilogram bags, increasing 16 percent from the previous year.

FAS Mumbai (Post) forecasts marketing year (MY) 2023/2024 coffee production (October-September) at 5.8 million 60-kilogram bags.