Browse Data and Analysis

FAS/San José anticipates Costa Rica's Ministry of Foreign Trade to allocate 2024 Dominican Republic - Central America Free Trade Agreement rice quota allocations by the end of April, effectively constraining the availability of U.S. duty-free rice to the final eight months of 2024. Though Costa Rica typically allocates quota volumes in December of the preceding year, calculations of 2024 volumes have been contested by importers following an extraordinary process resulting from a 2022 cyber attack.

Costa Rica reinstated 35 percent tariffs on non-U.S.-origin rice after an administrative court overturned an August 2022 tariff reduction and the Government’s appeal was rejected. Demand for U.S. rice has surged following the tariff restoration on reduced South American-origin rice competitiveness.

Grain production in Ukraine has remained unprofitable since the Russia’s invasion, and this is expected to translate into decreased grain area for MY2024/25. With CY2024 yields forecast below the previous near-record-breaking CY2023, the total grain MY2024/25 production volume is forecast to be lower than for the previous marketing year.

Rice export prices increased one percent due to the strengthening of the Thai baht that outweighed the downward pressure on domestic rice prices.

This monthly report includes data on U.S. and global trade, production, consumption and stocks, as well as analysis of developments affecting world trade in grains.

Monthly report on crop acreage, yield and production in major countries worldwide. Sources include reporting from FAS’s worldwide offices, official statistics of foreign governments....

Rice production in Cambodia is forecast to increase due to higher rice prices and the use of higher quality seeds. Rice exports to Vietnam have been surging as Vietnam mills have offered higher prices to Cambodian farmers.

In market year (MY) 2024/2025, FAS (Post) forecasts Venezuela’s corn production to reach 1.36 million metric tons (MMT), 5 percent higher year-on-year due to favorable weather conditions. Production increases are likely to increase despite low international prices and limited financing that will likely discourage expanded planting area.

In 2023, feed demand was low due to weak demand in Europe and the United States for Vietnamese produced aquaculture products. Post expects aquaculture and livestock production to rebound in the in MY 2024/25 increasing overall feed demand and as a result also increasing corn consumption. As domestic corn production remains uncompetitive with foreign imports, corn imports are forecast to grow Wheat imports are forecast to decline due to market volatility.

The Korean government’s policy incentivizing farmers to replace rice acreage with other crops is the driving force behind record low rice planting and production projected in marketing year (MY) 2024/25.

Paraguayan wheat production in marketing year (MY) 2024/2025 is forecast up at 1.15 million tons as a result of a significant increase in planted area and improved yields. Wheat exports would also be up at 450,000 tons.

In MY 2024/25, Post forecasts imports by the United Arab Emirates (UAE) of all wheat, rice, corn, and barley to increase to meet high local demand. Strong tourism, population growth, and expanding poultry and dairy sectors will drive this demand.