Browse Data and Analysis

This report provides trade data on Vietnam's monthly rice exports by grade and destination and weekly export quotes for rice by grade.

FAS Cairo (Post) forecasts Egypt’s wheat imports in marketing year (MY) 2022/23 (July – June) at 11.0 MMT, down from the previous marketing year estimate of 11.5 MMT. Egypt was able to secure a steady supply of wheat through diversification of wheat origins whether through tenders or implementing direct purchasing of wheat from several countries.

Due to the impact of the recent flooding, the 2022/23 rice production forecast is lowered to 8.3 million tons. With a slow-down in exports during July and August, plus the recent flooding causing a pause in export activities, marketing year 2021/22 rice exports are lowered to 4.5 million tons.

For MY 2022/23, Post maintains wheat and barley planted area forecast, while raising yield forecast on the account of reports that grain harvest and storage operations took place in good conditions. Post forecast MY 2022/23 wheat at 3.3 million metric tons (MMT), and barley at 1.2 MMT.

The weak southwest monsoon in first half of June 2022 slowed ongoing plantings of the kharif (fall harvested) season crops. Plantings will recover under adequate soil moisture conditions with the revival of monsoon starting the third week of June, along with expected normal precipitation in July. On July 6, India's Ministry of Commerce and Industry notified authorizing the export of wheat flour and other products (Harmonized Tariff System - HS code 1101) only on the recommendation of Inter-Ministerial Committee on the Export of Wheat.

Rice export prices increased 2 percent despite the weakening of the Thai baht.

Post revises China's Marketing Year (MY) 2022/23 feed demand upward by 4.5 million metric tons (MMT) based on recovering demand for hog feed. Rice substitution for corn in feed rations may play a more significant role because of price advantages over corn and other corn substitutes. Post adjusts wheat production in MY2022/23 upward by 2 MMT to 135 MMT based on improved growing conditions.

Post increased its corn production forecast for Marketing Year (MY) 2022/23 to 120 million metric tons (MMT) based on strong demand, increased prices in the domestic and international markets, and diminishing uncertainty over the availability of fertilizers. For MY 2021/22, Brazil’s corn planted area is set to reach new records.

Based on the government’s international procurement intentions, the 2022/23 wheat import forecast is increased from 2.0 to 2.5 million tons (MMT). Due to water shortages in key producing areas during the early planting season, the rice production forecast for 2022/23 (November-October) is reduced from 9.0 to 8.6 MMT.

The FAS/Seoul June 2022 Grain and Feed update covers changes to the Korean rice situation since the March 2022 Grain and Feed Annual report. MY 2022/23 rice production will likely decline slightly (1.4 percent) from the previous estimate due to government efforts to avoid overproduction, while consumption and imports are projected to remain unchanged from FAS/Seoul’s initial forecast.

Wheat production for marketing year (MY) 2022/23 is forecast slightly lower than the USDA official forecast based on updated industry and Mexican government data that reflect adverse weather conditions.

Executive Order #171, Series of 2022, modifies market access for MFN tariffs on corn and rice through December 31, 2021, necessitating changes to Post’s corn and wheat balance sheets but not rice.