India: Coffee Semi-annual

FAS Mumbai forecasts marketing year (MY) 2023/24 (October-September) India coffee production at 5.9 million 60-kilogram bags, two percent higher than the previous estimate. Dry conditions from October through December are expected to result in higher Arabica yields, with less incidence of berry droppings and damage. Farmgate prices of Arabica have fallen by more than 26 percent since June 2023 due to anticipation of higher-than-expected global supplies, while Robusta prices have remained firm owing to steady exports. Consequently, farmers may try to offload the limited Arabica stocks being held before the new crop arrivals begin. Post forecasts exports at 6.3 million 60-kilogram bags, unchanged from the previous estimate. Carryover stocks will remain limited due to higher Robusta exports.