European Union: Grain and Feed Quarterly

Weather conditions ranging from excessive heat to cooler than average temperatures, and from drought to excessive moisture, have curbed MY 2023/24 EU winter grain production expectations. July’s heatwave also raised concerns over EU corn crop prospects. The deterioration of the domestic crop is expected to prevent EU grain exports from expanding and supports steady imports. Russia’s withdrawal from the Black Sea Grain Initiative on July 17, 2023, has increased market volatility. If trade disruptions extend until autumn, alternative channels would need to be found to release the grain crop out of Ukraine. Intra-EU trade would then become particularly critical and EU grain exporters could regain competitiveness in third countries markets.