China: Poultry and Products Semi-annual
Post forecasts that broiler production will increase by 700,000 metric tons to 11.7 million metric tons (MMT) in 2018 due to returning consumer demand. Following China’s worst recorded outbreak of H7N9 avian influenza (AI) in the fall of 2016 continuing into the summer of 2017, consumer demand dropped significantly. In July 2017, China’s Ministry of Agriculture began an intensive H7 vaccination campaign. This flu season (October 2017 to present), China only recorded three human illnesses due to avian influenza. However, production remained partially constrained by lack of new genetic stock as China has placed AI-related bans on most major exporters. Finally, imports will decrease due to a number of facility suspensions in Brazil, China’s largest poultry supplier. Post forecasts imports will decrease to 300,000 metric tons.
