China: Oilseeds and Products Update
Post’s MY17/18 soybean production forecast is 14.4 million metric tons (MMT), up from the estimated 12.9 MMT in the previous year. The growth in soybean production is a combination of a 10.5 percent acreage expansion mainly due to lower government support for corn and good soybean yield due to favorable weather conditions. However, China’s rising demand for oilseeds continues to outpace the growth in domestic oilseed production. Thus, in MY17/18, Chinese imports of oilseeds are forecast to grow to another record at 99.8 MMT, up by 1.3 MMT over the previous year estimate. In MY17/18, soybean imports continue to be China’s largest oilseed import with total forecast imports of 95 MMT, up from the 93.5 MMT in MY16/17. Forecast economic growth of higher than 6.7 percent in 2017, and the rapid modernization of China’s domestic animal farming and feed sectors continue to boost oilseed products consumption. However, the rapid soybean import growth seen in MY16/17 is expected to level off in MY17/18. This is based on a forecast average growth in soybean meal demand, relatively high carry in stocks, and a higher domestic soybean production.
