China: Falling Hog Numbers Pressure Import Demand for Oilseeds

China’s soybean imports are estimated to fall to 84 million metric tons (MMT) in marketing year (MY) 18/19 and 83 MMT in MY19/20, compared to 94.1 MMT in MY17/18. Meanwhile, China’s rapeseed imports from Canada are expected to fall by almost 40 percent during the second half of MY18/19 compared to the same period the previous year, due to reported phytosanitary concerns. The sizable decrease in MY18/19 and MY19/20 soybean imports is due to reduced feed demand as a result of African Swine Fever (ASF) in China beginning in August 2018. The disease has caused a significant decline in sow and hog inventories, thereby reducing demand for soybean meal for feed. This situation is expected to continue through 2019 and into 2020. Increased vegetable oil imports in MY18/19 and MY19/20 will fill the gap caused by reduced domestic oilseed crushing. 

China: Falling Hog Numbers Pressure Import Demand for Oilseeds