China: Dairy and Products Semi-annual

In 2022, China's raw milk production is forecast to reach 39.65 million metric tons due to a larger herd and production efficiency gains. China’s zero-COVID policy is expected to remain unchanged for the foreseeable future. In 2022, the resurgence of COVID-19 and government restrictions, such as lockdowns, are expected to impact dairy and dairy product distribution and use. Dairy processors are expected to increase whole milk powder production from raw milk to limit losses. In 2022, Post estimates that butter imports will increase compared to 2021, due to demand in the bakery sector. Imported fluid milk (primarily ultrahigh temperature milk) is expected to increase over 2021, due to consumer demand for shelf-stable products. Post estimates that imports of whole milk powder, skim milk powder, and cheese will be lower in 2022. High prices for imported dairy products in 2022 are expected to weigh on growth.