Canada: Livestock and Products Semi-Annual

The ongoing contraction of the Canadian cattle herd is expected to continue in 2022. Canadian live cattle exports are forecast to decline on a smaller calf crop. High feed costs and limited availability will see live exports outpace 2021 through the first half of 2022. Imports of U.S. feeder cattle will decline in 2022 following five years of record imports. Feed availability in Western Canada and competition for feeder animals due to contraction in the U.S. cattle herd will drive this trend. Following significant processing disruptions due to labor issues in 2021, the Canadian swine sector will see slaughter levels recover somewhat in 2022. However, closure of the slaughter line at a Quebec facility will result in increased exports to the United States as market ready hogs in Ontario and Quebec are displaced. Disease impacts will see a slightly smaller pig crop in 2022 amidst higher losses. The United States will remain the top trade partner for both imports and exports of beef and pork.