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Exporters and importers continue to face much uncertainty due to the military regime’s foreign currency control policies and continuing conflict between the regime and ethnic armed forces. FAS Rangoon forecasts Burma’s MY 2024/25 rice exports to recover to 1.7 MMT amid high stocks and expected relaxation of export controls. MY 2024/25 corn exports and wheat imports will remain flat.

Burma’s beans and pulses production in MY 2021/22 is forecast to decrease due to reduced use of fertilizers and pesticides and a return to rice production in low-land areas with the expectation of favorable weather.

In April 2021, Burma’s rice exports are forecast to decline overall due to the long Burmese New Year Holidays and border gate closures between China and Burma to prevent the spread of COVID-19.

Since Burma initiated a series of political and economic reforms in 2011, U.S. agricultural exports have grown over 80-fold, reaching a record $174 million in 2019 and $167 million in 2020.

The Burmese military’s February 1, 2021 coup will negatively impact agricultural trade at least in the short-term due to the country-wide Civil Disobedience Movement, which involves widespread labor strikes in opposition to the military’s action.