Browse Data and Analysis

In terms of total volume, Mexico´s marketing year (MY) 2024/25 total deciduous fruit production is forecast nearly unchanged, with a small decline in pear production mostly offset by minor growth in apple and table grape production.

The production of apples, pears and table grapes is forecast to improve in MY 2024/25 from MY 2023/24 based on the cold, wet winter of 2024 and new trees coming into production.

Mexico’s 2024 peach production is forecast at 266,400 metric tons (MT), a three percent increase over 2023, driven by steady domestic demand and minimal exports.

Record orange juice prices are expected to escalate orange juice production as growers increase deliveries for processing. Growers are diverting oranges from the export market and local sales towards processing on favorable prices.

Mexico’s 2024 tomato production is forecast at 3.30 million metric tons (MMT), a two percent increase over 2023, driven by export demand and investment in protected agriculture systems.

The cold and wet winter of 2023 provided favorable conditions for deciduous fruit and aided in improved production volumes. Production is expected to grow and improve in quality from MY 2022/23 when fruit was affected by hail damage.

Mexico’s 2024 avocado production is forecast at 2.77 million metric tons (MMT), a five percent increase over 2023 on strong export demand. Production in 2023 reached 2.65 MMT, up four percent compared to the previous year.

Mexico’s 2024 blueberry production is forecast at 81,000 MT, an eight percent increase over 2023 on sufficient water access and growing export demand. The rate of production growth is projected to be slower in 2024 compared to 2023 due to competition from Peru.

In market year (MY) 2023/24, total citrus production in Mexico is expected down slightly by 1.5 percent versus the previous year, driven primarily by a reduction in fresh lime production. While fresh orange production is projected up fractionally, increasingly erratic conditions such as prolonged drought and high temperatures affected the main producing regions in the current year and reduced harvest quality.

South African production of lemons is forecast to rise by 10 percent in MY 2023/24 on sufficient irrigation and greater input investments by producers, while tangerine/mandarins production is forecast to increase by 4 percent.

Overall, Mexico’s market year (MY) 2023/24 deciduous fruit production is projected to remain steady year-to-year, with apple production increasing marginally, but from what is already estimated to be a large MY 2022/23 crop.

Despite industry consolidation resulting in limited expansion, deciduous fruit production is expected to grow marginally as plantings come into production.