Browse Data and Analysis

Post raises its marketing year (MY) 2024/25 cotton production estimate to 6.2 million metric tons (MMT) on record high yields of more than 2.1 MT per hectare.

Post forecasts production for marketing year (MY) 2024/25 at 0.89 million 480-lb bales, a similar level as in MY 2023/24. The planting area is expected to decrease due to farmers switching to more profitable crops, drought conditions, and limited access to water from dams.

Vietnam’s cotton imports for marketing year 2024/25 (MY 2024/25) are estimated at 6.8 million bales, up 4 percent over MY 2023/24 based on an expected recovery in global demand for textiles and garments by late 2024.

In 2024, Brazil surpassed the United States in cotton production and exports for the first time on record. Brazil's MY2024/25 planted area is also estimated to reach a new record. Favorable prices compared to corn as well as lower production costs have boosted cotton's profitability, making it the preferred choice for second crop planting.

Turkiye’s cotton production in marketing year (MY) 2024/25 is forecast to increase to 865,000 metric tons (MT; 3.97 million bales), since farmers planted cotton on larger area in response to temporary cotton price hikes during the planting season and because of better yields compared to last MY due to better weather conditions.

Post revised up Brazil’s MY 2024/25 cotton production forecast to 16.6 million 480lb bales (3.6 million metric tons (MMT)), an 11 percent increase compared to the previous MY. The main drivers behind this record output are a forecasted area increase (revised up to 1.94 million hectares), and better-than-anticipated yields across key producing states.

Forecast MY 24/25 cotton production is 5.9 million metric tons (MMT), unchanged from the previous report and the estimate for MY 23/24. A marginally higher yield estimate of 2,014 kg/Ha offset a slightly lower planted area unchanged from the previous report at 2.93 million hectares (MHa) on lower cotton profits in regions outside Xinjiang in MY 23/24.

Post forecasts production for marketing year (MY) 2024/25 at 0.85 million 480-lb bales, a similar level as in MY 2023/24. The planting area is expected to decrease due to farmers switching to more profitable crops. Constraints on planted area and yield include limited seed technology, high input costs, extreme temperatures, and drought.

Vietnam’s cotton imports for marketing year 2024/25 (MY 2024/25) are forecast at 6.8 million bales, up 3 percent over MY 2023/24 based on an expected recovery in global demand for textiles and garments by mid-2024.

The global economic slowdown and illegal imports of cheaper textile products continue to hinder the growth of the Indonesian textile and textile products industry in 2023/24.

Marketing year (MY) 24/25 cotton imports are forecast at 2.4 million metric tons (MMT) on higher domestic and international demand for textile and apparel products. After a sharp decline in early 2023, exports of textile and apparel products have rebounded, along with demand for imported cotton.

For MY 2024/25, Post forecasts cotton area to grow 13 percent compared to the current season, to 1.87 million hectares. Post also forecasts cotton production at a record 15.4 million bales (3.3 million metric tons (MMT)) on the back of significant area increase.