Browse Data and Analysis

In 2024, Brazil recorded extreme weather events including the intensification of heat waves in several regions. Although the impacts of the fire outbreaks in the sugarcane production are difficult to estimate, the losses caused directly by the fires should not affect Brazil´s total sugar production in the MY 2024/25.

FAS/Bangkok (Post) forecasts MY 2024/25 sugar production to increase to 10.2 MMT. MY 2023/24 sugar exports are likely to decline 26 percent due to competition from Brazil. Post expects sugar exports to double in MY 2024/25 from MY 2023/24 in anticipation of tight exportable sugar supplies in the major exporting countries.

Post forecasts Mexico’s sugar production at 5.4 million metric tons raw value (MMT-RV) for marketing year (MY) 2024/25 (October 1 – September 30).

For marketing year October 2024/September 2025 (MY 2024/25), Post forecasts overall sugar production in the Dominican Republic (DR) to increase to 520,000 metric tons (MT) due to better-than-expected rainfall patterns.

Argentine sugar exports in marketing year (MY) 2024/2025 are projected at 625,000 tons raw value, the largest in the past 15 years due to the combination of expected large production and large stocks of sugar passed in from the previous marketing year.

MY 2024/25 sugar production is expected to recover from a 20 percent slump in MY 2023/24. Sugar consumption growth will likely decelerate in MY 2023/24 and MY 2024/25, following Thailand’s slow economic recovery and shrinking sugar demand by non-alcoholic beverage manufacturers due to the progressive sugar tax.

In marketing year (MY) 2024/2025, Colombia's sugar production is forecast to remain unchanged from the previous MY at 2.25 million metric tons (MMT) owing in part to the onset of the El Niño phenomenon and its dry weather conditions in the second half of 2023.

Ecuador's sugar production in marketing year (MY) 2024/25 is forecast to recover to 530,000 metric tons (MT), the same as the MY 2022/23 estimate, due to a rebound in harvested area after a difficult El Nino weather cycle during the second half of 2023.

FAS/Managua anticipates a drop in sugarcane production in marketing year 2024/25, as increased precipitation, which could be exacerbated by a La Niña weather cycle in the second half of 2024, brings agricultural and industrial yields closer to historical levels.

Marketing year (MY) 2024/2025 Venezuelan sugar production is forecast to increase to 373,000 metric tons due to favorable yields, increased access to quality inputs, improved prices for producers and better sugar industry profit margins.

Brazil’s sugarcane fields performed exceptionally well in the marketing year (MY) April 2023 to March 2024, producing a record of 705 million metric tons (MMT).

Sugar production and exports are projected slightly up in marketing year (MY) 2025 (October 2024 to September 2025) because of the increase in productivity yields, harvested area, and additional investments made in the sugar sector and increased exports.