Browse Data and Analysis

FAS Manila forecasts raw sugar production at 1.85 million metric tons (MT) for marketing year (MY) 2025, higher than the Sugar Regulatory Administration’s (SRA) forecast of 1.78 million MT, due to an expansion in area planted and improvements in weather conditions from the previous El Niño, which is expected to provide better production in MY 2025.

FAS/Bangkok (Post) forecasts MY 2024/25 sugar production to increase to 10.2 MMT. MY 2023/24 sugar exports are likely to decline 26 percent due to competition from Brazil. Post expects sugar exports to double in MY 2024/25 from MY 2023/24 in anticipation of tight exportable sugar supplies in the major exporting countries.

FAS China forecasts commercial production of in-shell walnuts to rebound 11 percent to 1.5 MMT in MY 2024/25 supported by favorable growing conditions in major production areas. Improved world supplies and changing dietary concepts will likely drive nut imports to continue rising.

China’s MY 2024/25 sugar production is forecast at 11 MMT, up 600,000 MT as acreage for both cane and beet are up and competition crops are less profitable.

The Philippines issued Sugar Order No. 5 (SO5) announcing the importation of 240,000 metric tons (MT) of refined sugar, the first sugar import program for marketing year (MY) 2024-2025 which starts in September 2024 and ends in August 2025.

The Philippines is set to resume raw sugar exports to the United States under its sugar quota in August 2024. The Sugar Regulatory Administration (SRA) issued Sugar Order (SO) No. 3 on July 26, approving the export of 25,300 metric tons raw value (MTRV) of raw sugar in fulfillment of the United States tariff rate quota (TRQ) allocation for fiscal year 2024.

MY 2024/25 sugar production is expected to recover from a 20 percent slump in MY 2023/24. Sugar consumption growth will likely decelerate in MY 2023/24 and MY 2024/25, following Thailand’s slow economic recovery and shrinking sugar demand by non-alcoholic beverage manufacturers due to the progressive sugar tax.

China’s MY 2024/25 sugar production is forecast at 10.4 MMT as the planted areas for both cane and beet are expected to rise. Given sugar prices are expected to trend down, China’s MY 2024/25 sugar consumption estimate is also forecast to increase to 15.7 MMT.

FAS Manila forecasts marketing year (MY) 2025 raw sugar production of 1.85 million metric tons (MT). With high prices, more farmers have planted sugarcane, but some farms with no irrigation are suffering from the ongoing El Niño, which stunted sugarcane growth and could result in lower yields in MY 2025.

Australia’s sugar production is forecast to increase to 4.2 million metric tons (MMT) in marketing year (MY) 2024/25 from an estimated 4.1 MMT in MY 2023/24. This increase is due to an expected rise in sugar cane crush to 30.5 MMT in MY 2024/25, from an estimate of 29.8 MMT in the previous year.

Despite area expansion by private sugar mills, a long, drawn-out El Nino in 2023/24 reduced both sugarcane and plantation white sugar production. The ongoing impact of El Nino will be immediately followed by the onset of the 2024 dry season combined with a predicted La Nina at the end of 2024, which are forecast to further reduce sugarcane and plantation white sugar production.

The Philippines issued sugar policy (Sugar Order No. 1) for marketing year (MY) 2023-2024 allocating 100 percent of the estimated 1.85 million metric tons (MT) production to the domestic market.