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With the outlook for the sugar industry largely unchanged from the previous report, no significant changes are made to the supply and demand tables.

FAS-Lagos forecasts a 6 percent decrease in raw sugar imports in marketing year (MY) 2024/25 due to the scarcity of foreign exchange and the projected decrease in consumption.

Due to a slight increase in cane area and production, sugar production in 2024/25 is forecast to reach 6.8 million tons, 3 percent higher than 2023/24. In line with population growth and demand from the food processing sector, continued moderate growth in sugar consumption is forecast.

The Federal Executive Council approved the extension of the National Sugar Master Plan (NSMP) by 10 years (2023-2033). NSMP is an effort of the Government of Nigeria to ensure self-sufficiency in local sugar production.

Sugar production in 2023/24 is forecast at 7.05 million tons, three percent above the 2022/23 estimate. The marginal increase is due to expectations for a recovery in cane area harvested compared to the flood-damaged 2022/23 crop.

The 2022/2023 sugarcane harvested area is slightly reduced due to the impacts of the recent flooding in key production areas. As a result, the 2022/23 cane sugar production forecast is lowered to 7 million tons. Despite the slight decline in output expected, there will still be an exportable surplus, and the 2022/23 export forecast remains 1 million tons.

Nigeria’s current 10-year Sugar Master Plan (NSMP) will end next year – likely moving on to another 10-year Phase Two Plan. The growth in sugar consumption is expected to be driven by the food processing sector.

Due to slight increases in area and sugarcane yields, sugar production in 2022/23 is forecast to reach 7.2 million metric tons (MMT), a marginal increase over the good 2021/22 crop. Sugar consumption for 2022/23 is forecast at 6.1 MMT, which would be a 3.3 percent increase, reflecting population growth and demand from the expanding food processing sector.

Driven by more area and better yields, centrifugal sugar production in 2021/22 is forecast at 6.7 million tons, up 11 percent over the current year’s revised estimate.

Nigeria’s sugar industry is facing serious challenges despite efforts by the government to create self-sufficiency in sugar production and reduce raw sugar imports.

Pakistan’s MY 2021/22 sugar production is forecast at 6.8 million metric tons (MMT), up 14 percent from the current year’s revised estimate, due to significant increases in area and sugarcane yields.

Pakistan’s Marketing Year (MY) 2020/21 sugar production is forecast at 5.9 million metric tons (MMT), a six percent increase from the current year’s revised estimate due to an expected increase...