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Hot and dry conditions in the autumn and winter of 2024 led to a drop in the production of South African sugar cane. This is expected to translate into a slight decrease in sugar production and exports.

China’s MY 2024/25 sugar production is forecast at 11 MMT, up 600,000 MT as acreage for both cane and beet are up and competition crops are less profitable.

On July 19, 2024, the South African government published a new sugar import tariff of R1,093 per metric ton (US$60.09/MT). This tariff change was triggered by a downward trend in global sugar prices and will apply to sugar imported into the Southern Africa Customs Union (SACU).

China’s MY 2024/25 sugar production is forecast at 10.4 MMT as the planted areas for both cane and beet are expected to rise. Given sugar prices are expected to trend down, China’s MY 2024/25 sugar consumption estimate is also forecast to increase to 15.7 MMT.

Post expects sugar cane production in MY 2024/25 to show modest growth on carry-over cane and slight increase in harvested area. Sugar production is forecast to improve on slight increase in cane deliveries. The sugar industry effected notional price hikes of white and brown sugar which translated to increases in retail prices of sugar.

Post forecasts South African raw sugar production at 2.17 million MT in MY 2023/24, up 9 percent from 2 million MT in MY 2022/23, based on an increase in the quantity of cane delivered to the mills and consistent milling efficiencies.

MY 2022/23 China’s sugar imports declined due to escalating world prices. Following suit, Chinese sugar prices spiked at the highest levels since 2012.

Post forecasts South Africa’s sugar cane crop will increase by 3 percent to 18.5 million metric tons (MT) in market year (MY) 2023/24 assuming a return to normal weather conditions, an improvement in yields, and industry efforts to increase production, especially for small-scale farmers.

MY 2022/23 cane sugar production is estimated at 7.92 MMT, revised down 1.08 MMT from the USDA official estimate due to lower-than-normal rainfall in Guangxi, China’s largest sugar producing province. Sugar consumption has begun to rebound since after the removal of COVID-related restrictions. As China’s sugar imports are curbed by high world prices, stocks are likely to decline.

On October 28, 2022, Tongaat Hullet’s management announced that they opted to go into voluntary business rescue due to the company’s severe levels of financial distress. On Tuesday November 1, Tongaat Hullet missed the deadline to pay R401 million ($22.9 million) for cane delivered by 4,300 growers in September.

China’s estimated MY2021/22 sugar imports and stocks are revised upward, while consumption is revised downward due to low world prices and COVID-related policy impacts. Assuming beet acreage rebounds in Inner Mongolia, the MY2022/23 sugar production remains forecasted at 10 MMT.

Post estimates that the South African sugar cane crop will grow by 7 percent to 18.4 million metric tons (MT) in the 2022/23 market year (MY), up from 17.2 million MT in the 2021/22 MY. This is based on a return to normal weather conditions, an improvement in yields, and industry efforts to increase production, especially for small-scale farmers.