Browse Data and Analysis

Hot and dry conditions in the autumn and winter of 2024 led to a drop in the production of South African sugar cane. This is expected to translate into a slight decrease in sugar production and exports.

On July 19, 2024, the South African government published a new sugar import tariff of R1,093 per metric ton (US$60.09/MT). This tariff change was triggered by a downward trend in global sugar prices and will apply to sugar imported into the Southern Africa Customs Union (SACU).

Post expects sugar cane production in MY 2024/25 to show modest growth on carry-over cane and slight increase in harvested area. Sugar production is forecast to improve on slight increase in cane deliveries. The sugar industry effected notional price hikes of white and brown sugar which translated to increases in retail prices of sugar.

Post forecasts South African raw sugar production at 2.17 million MT in MY 2023/24, up 9 percent from 2 million MT in MY 2022/23, based on an increase in the quantity of cane delivered to the mills and consistent milling efficiencies.

Post forecasts South Africa’s sugar cane crop will increase by 3 percent to 18.5 million metric tons (MT) in market year (MY) 2023/24 assuming a return to normal weather conditions, an improvement in yields, and industry efforts to increase production, especially for small-scale farmers.

On October 28, 2022, Tongaat Hullet’s management announced that they opted to go into voluntary business rescue due to the company’s severe levels of financial distress. On Tuesday November 1, Tongaat Hullet missed the deadline to pay R401 million ($22.9 million) for cane delivered by 4,300 growers in September.

Post estimates that the South African sugar cane crop will grow by 7 percent to 18.4 million metric tons (MT) in the 2022/23 market year (MY), up from 17.2 million MT in the 2021/22 MY. This is based on a return to normal weather conditions, an improvement in yields, and industry efforts to increase production, especially for small-scale farmers.

Post forecasts that the South African sugar cane crop will expand by 9 percent to 18.8 million metric tons (MT) in the 2022/23 market year (MY), based on a return to normal weather conditions, an improvement in yields, and marginal increases in planted area.

Post estimates that the sugar cane crop will fall by 2 percent to 17.9 million MT in the 2021/22 MY, based on cane that was burnt and rejected by sugar mills during the civil unrest and protests in KwaZulu-Natal, frost damage in some growing areas in June 2021, and some growers diversifying to more profitable crops.

The South African sugar industry has always publicly lamented the negative impact of the Health Promotion Levy (HPL) that was introduced in 2018 to the already distressed sector.

Post forecasts that the South African sugar cane crop will increase by 3 percent to 18.8 million Metric Tons (MT) in the 2021/22 MY, based on normal weather conditions, improvements in yields, and marginal increases in area planted.

Post estimates that the sugar cane crop will decrease by less than 1 percent to 19.1 million MT in the 2020/21 MY, based on frost and fire damage in some growing areas, some growers diversifying...