Browse Data and Analysis

China’s MY 2024/25 sugar production is forecast at 11 MMT, up 600,000 MT as acreage for both cane and beet are up and competition crops are less profitable.

Ukraine established a self-limiting trade measure for sugar to create long term trust with its neighbor.

MY2024/25 sugar production is forecast at 1.8 MMT, similar to FAS/Kyiv's previous MY estimate. Sugar beet production area will remain steady across MY2023/24 and MY2024/25, which could be an indicator that the sugar industry is adjusting to a “new normal.”

China’s MY 2024/25 sugar production is forecast at 10.4 MMT as the planted areas for both cane and beet are expected to rise. Given sugar prices are expected to trend down, China’s MY 2024/25 sugar consumption estimate is also forecast to increase to 15.7 MMT.

MY 2022/23 China’s sugar imports declined due to escalating world prices. Following suit, Chinese sugar prices spiked at the highest levels since 2012.

MY2023/24 sugar production is forecast at 1.5 MMT, a 13 percent increase compared to the previous MY estimate, as Ukraine returns to pre-war (CY2021) production areas of sugar beets.

MY 2022/23 cane sugar production is estimated at 7.92 MMT, revised down 1.08 MMT from the USDA official estimate due to lower-than-normal rainfall in Guangxi, China’s largest sugar producing province. Sugar consumption has begun to rebound since after the removal of COVID-related restrictions. As China’s sugar imports are curbed by high world prices, stocks are likely to decline.

China’s estimated MY2021/22 sugar imports and stocks are revised upward, while consumption is revised downward due to low world prices and COVID-related policy impacts. Assuming beet acreage rebounds in Inner Mongolia, the MY2022/23 sugar production remains forecasted at 10 MMT.

The MY 2022/23 sugar production forecast is down 23 percent from the previous estimate. Producers face a shrinking domestic market and fluctuating world prices, as well as the strain of conflict with Russia in terms of ensuring production and exports.

MY 2021/22 estimates for production, trade, and consumption are all revised downward.

The sugar production forecast for MY21/22 (October – September) is revised down to 10.3 MMT on slower than expected growth in cane acreage and more sugar beet acreage losing out to corn.

Sugar production in MY21/22 (Oct-Sep) is forecast to marginally grow to 10.6 million metric tons as rising cane sugar production is expected to offset lower beet sugar production.