Browse Data and Analysis

Post forecasts that South Africa’s oilseed area will be maintained at elevated levels in marketing year 2024/25. South Africa’s summer rainfall oilseed crops in marketing year 2023/24 have been affected by an El Niño induced mid-summer drought, resulting in an expected major drop in crop volumes, creating an optimistic outlook for higher crop area in marketing year 2024/25.

Post estimates that South Africa will produce a record rapeseed (locally called canola) crop of 220,000 metric tons in marketing year 2023/24.

El-Nino weather patterns, which bring less rain than normal, are expected to peak in August to September 2023.

The 2021 U.S. Agricultural Export Yearbook provides a statistical summary of U.S. agricultural commodity exports to the world.

South Africa experienced an upward trend in oilseed production (soybeans and sunflower seeds) driven largely by rising oilseed prices, higher yielding cultivars, and a local demand-pull from investments in new oilseed processing plants.

Indonesia palm oil production is expected to reach 46 million metric tons (MMT) in 2022/23 on favorable weather and higher producer profit margins. Palm oil exports for 2021/22 are revised down from the previous update due to the Government of Indonesia’s domestic market obligation (DMO) requirement, which increased to 30 percent from 20 percent.

Indonesia kicked off 2022 by rolling out several market intervention policies in response to recent rising prices for cooking oil. From January 19-31, 2022, Indonesia implemented a temporary cooking oil subsidy program utilizing the Crude Palm Oil (CPO) fund, the same funding source that subsidizes the biodiesel mandate program.

Indonesia extended its B30 mandate, which requires biodiesel to contain 30 percent palm oil-based fuel, to 2022. Palm oil exports for 2021/22 are forecast to increase 13 percent and soybean meal imports are estimated higher than previously expected.

The Ministry of Agriculture (MOA) has issued a new regulation requiring Import Recommendations for soybeans, however implementation may depend on corresponding regulations from the Ministry of Trade (MOT).

Post predicts that South Africa’s positive trend in soybean plantings will continue in the 2021/22 MY in line increased local crushing capacity.

Favorable weather, increased use of fertilizer, and surging prices are expected to push Indonesia’s palm oil production and exports to record highs 2021/22.

To stabilize rising soybean prices the Ministry of Agriculture (MOA) has put forth a three-phase plan that includes: “market operations” whereby importers would be required to sell soybeans...