Browse Data and Analysis

Edible oil prices have been trending higher and are now increasingly volatile due to poor market transparency and the Russian invasion of Ukraine. Post forecasts MY 2022/2023 soybean imports up to 2.8 million MT, while local soybean production remains flat.

On March 17, the Serbian Government added refined sunflower edible oil to the list of grains and oilseeds that cannot be exported because of their importance to food security. In the same amendment the Serbian Government removed raw sunflower seed oil from the list that is now free for export.

Indonesia palm oil production is expected to reach 46 million metric tons (MMT) in 2022/23 on favorable weather and higher producer profit margins. Palm oil exports for 2021/22 are revised down from the previous update due to the Government of Indonesia’s domestic market obligation (DMO) requirement, which increased to 30 percent from 20 percent.

Due to the poultry industry’s slow recovery and sluggish consumer demand for edible oils, no significant growth in oilseed and edible oil use is forecast for 2022/23. Likewise, soybean, canola, and palm oil imports in 2022/23 are forecast to remain similar to 2021/22 levels.

Fishmeal exports reached a surprising 1.2 million metric tons (MMT) in MY 2021, the highest amount in ten years. However, production and exports are forecast to return to more normal levels at 910,000 and 896,000 metric tons, respectively.

On March 2, 2022, the Supreme People's Court of China issued "Guiding Opinions on Further Strengthening the Criminal Trial Work Involving Seeds" (hereinafter referred to as the "Opinions"). The Opinions clarify the general requirements for strengthening seed-related criminal trials, the application of law to seed-related crimes, and improvement of relevant enforcement mechanisms.

Tunisian MY 2022/23 soybean imports are expected to reach 560,000 MT, compared to 555,000 MT in MY 2021/22. Tunisian olive oil exports are forecast to reach 135,000 MT in MY 2022/23, compared to 200,000 MT in MY 2021/22.

India’s rapeseed and mustard production estimate for marketing year 2021/2022 (October-September) is revised upward to 10.8 million metric tons on account of significantly higher acreage at almost 9.2 million hectares, high domestic prices, and a good monsoon performance.

Turkey’s production of major oilseeds – sunflowerseeds, cottonseeds, and soybeans – in MY 2022/23 is projected to rebound from the previous year as strong prices are expected to spur increased plantings.

After a lengthy interagency review, Indonesia’s Ministry of Agriculture released updated oil palm area data, significantly increasing overall plantation hectares.

2019/20 soybean planted area is forecast at 18 million hectares and production is forecast at 53 million tons, unchanged since September.

Post forecasts crude palm oil (CPO) production in marketing year (MY) 2019/20 at 20.6 million metric tons (MT).