Browse Data and Analysis

After two consecutive years of short olive oil production, MY 2024/25 olive oil output in the EU is expected to revert to average levels on good flowering conditions and a mild summer. Fall precipitation will be critical to final production volumes.

Sunflowerseed production in marketing year (MY) 2024/25 is forecast to drop to its lowest level in almost a decade due to extremely dry weather conditions in the northeast part of the country, where more than half of the production is concentrated.

FAS/Sofia estimates a reduction in Bulgarian oilseeds crops in marketing year (MY) 2024/25 due to extremely hot and dry weather conditions in July and August. FAS/Sofia estimates the rapeseed crop at 190,000 metric tons (MT), down nine percent from last year and 36 percent from two years ago.

Ukraine introduced procedures for the approval of minimum export prices for selected bulk commodities, including grains, oilseeds, vegetable oils and meals, walnuts, and honey.

In early August, Turkiye announced that it will open a lower-duty quota for 1.0 million metric tons of sunflower seed or crude sunflower oil equivalent, starting from January-April of next year.

As of June 1, 2024, Turkiye’s Ministry of Trade has relaxed the ban on the export of bulk and barreled olive oil, allowing up to 50,000 tons of bulk and barreled olive oil to be exported until November 1, 2024. This decision, in response to negative sentiment from domestic industry, is expected to have a positive, though limited, impact on global olive oil prices.

FAS/Sofia expects a lower Bulgarian rapeseed crop in marketing year (MY) 2024/25, falling by four percent from last year to about 200,000 metric tons (MT), due to a combination of reduced harvested area and unfavorable weather.

MY 2023/24 saw rather disappointing yields for the UK rapeseed oilseed crop overall. In MY 2024/25 rapeseed production is forecast even lower at 900 thousand metric tons (MT) due to a combination of poor growing conditions, a sharp fall in the price of rapeseed, pest pressure and the increased attractiveness of agri-environment options.

MY 2024/25 European Union oilseed production is forecast to decline by about one percent over the previous year with good yields. This forecast is based on the assumption of average growing conditions, lower, more average yields, but increased area which cannot make up for the lower yields.

For marketing year (MY) 2024/25, Ukrainian farmers are forecast to increase area under all the major oilseeds except for sunflowers. However, regarding production volumes, this increase might be somewhat dampened by lower yields compared to the high levels of MY2023/24.

Assuming the return of more favorable growing conditions and yields that are in line with historical averages, Turkey is expected to produce more sunflowerseed, cottonseed, and soybeans in MY 2024/25 compared to the previous year, which was marked by dry weather conditions in parts of the country.

In MY 2023/24, the EU is facing a second consecutive short olive oil production crop.