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The Government of Vietnam (GVN) issued Decree 144/2024/ND-CP on November 1, 2024, lowering Most-Favored-Nation (MFN) tariff rates on soybean meal to one percent from two percent. The Decree will enter into force on December 16, 2024.

Soybeans from the United States are once again eligible to enter South Africa. After a mid-summer drought that caused a 35 percent drop in production, South Africa needs to import soybeans to supplement domestic production and maintain crushing demand.

Post maintains Vietnam’s soybean meal consumption forecast for the marketing year (MY) 2023/24 at 5.85 million tons, aligned with feed consumption. It expects consumption to rise to 6.1 million tons in 2024/25 due to increased demand for animal and aquafeed.

Côte d’Ivoire ranks as Africa’s second largest producer of crude palm oil (CPO); trailing just behind Nigeria’s production, it is a pivotal player in the sub-Saharan regional market.

While the United States holds a 5-year average of less than 1 percent market share ($20.7 million in 2023 exports), Senegal has a growing food manufacturing industry that seeks cost-competitive ingredients and is expanding its exports to neighboring countries.

Côte d'Ivoire is one of the leading producers of palm oil in Africa, with annual production exceeding 500,000 metric tons since 2018. The country consumes over 75% of its palm oil production domestically, with palm oil being a staple for 90% of the population. The high domestic demand for palm oil outstrips supply, creating intense competition for fresh fruit bunches (FFB).

Fresh fruit bunch (FBB) and kernel yields are expected to remain high in MY2024/25 due to stabilized fertilizer prices and a good weather forecast. In response to the growing domestic and export demands, MY2024/25 soybean production forecast has been raised by 16 percent over the preceding year’s estimate.

Due to higher input costs associated with planting corn, rice, and other crops, soybean and peanut production is expected to increase in marketing year (MY) 2024/25. Private sector investors are expanding oil palm production and increasing processing capacity to take advantage of strong demand and high prices.

Post forecasts that South Africa’s oilseed area will be maintained at elevated levels in marketing year 2024/25. South Africa’s summer rainfall oilseed crops in marketing year 2023/24 have been affected by an El Niño induced mid-summer drought, resulting in an expected major drop in crop volumes, creating an optimistic outlook for higher crop area in marketing year 2024/25.

Vietnam’s economy is on the path to recovery. Post revises Vietnam’s MY2022/23 soybean meal consumption down to 5.65 MMT due to lower aquaculture feed consumption and forecasts an increase to 5.85 MMT in MY 2023/24.

After slow growth during the first half of 2023, Vietnam’s economy is on a path to recovery. Post has revised Vietnam’s feed consumption forecast to 26.6 MMT in MY2022/23 matching levels in MY2021/22.

Post estimates that South Africa will produce a record rapeseed (locally called canola) crop of 220,000 metric tons in marketing year 2023/24.