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FAS Manila forecasts Marketing Year (MY) 2024/25 rice imports to reach 4.60 million metric tons (MT), given the implementation of Executive Order No. 62, 2024 that reduced rice tariff rates from 35 to 15 percent.

Despite record production and ample stocks, the Philippines is forecast to import a record volume of rice. Large imports are spurred in part by high domestic prices and the recent government decision to reduce tariffs from 35 to 15 percent.

FAS Manila forecasts MY 2024/25 milled rice production will increase to 12.125 million MT as the country emerges from the current El Nino and government spending on inputs and machinery contributes to increased yield.

FAS Manila maintains its September 2023 forecast for rice and corn production and imports, but lowers its forecast slightly for wheat imports to 6.0 million metric tons.

FAS Manila expects rice imports to decline to 3.5 million MT as high prices in the international market and price ceilings ordered by the President disincentivize imports.

There are no changes to rice and corn production and imports, nor wheat imports for MY 2023/24.

The 2023 U.S. Agricultural Export Yearbook provides a statistical summary of U.S. agricultural commodity exports to the world during the 2023 calendar year.

The 2022 U.S. Agricultural Export Yearbook provides a statistical summary of U.S. agricultural commodity exports to the world during the 2022 calendar year.

FAS Manila forecasts MY 2023/24 milled rice production will rebound to 12.55 million MT because of increased government funding to the sector, which is expected to increase fertilizer application. FAS Manila forecasts rice imports flat at 3.6 million MT because of increased local production.

This report outlines the Philippine government requirements for the importation of rice, including significant developments since 2022, when the government generally stopped approving issuances of the Sanitary-Phytosanitary Import Clearance (SPSIC) import permit.

FAS Manila maintains MY 2022/23 milled rice production at 11.975 million MT, as previously stated conditions such as diminished fertilizer application still hold. FAS Manila estimates rice imports at 3.8 million MT in response to recent trade data. FAS Manila estimates wheat imports at 5.8 million MT because of high prices and industry contacts’ observations that consumers have limited purchasing power.

FAS Manila revised MY 2022/23 milled rice production downward to 11.975 million MT both because of a 3 percent expected reduction in yields as soaring fertilizer prices result in significantly reduced application and because of the effects of Typhoon Noru (Local name: Karding).