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This report provides trade data on Vietnam's monthly rice exports by grade and destination and weekly export quotes for rice by grade.

Export prices decreased 1-2 percent due to further weakening of the Thai baht.

For marketing year (MY) 2022/23, Post's forecast for rice harvested area and production remain unchanged at 11.5 million hectares and 35.65 million metric tons (MT), the same as the USDA official forecasts. Post's wheat production forecast in MY 2022/23 also remains unchanged from Post's previous projection.

Due to dry conditions, Argentine wheat production for marketing year (MY) 2022/23 is forecast down at 15.5 million metric tons (MMT), 2 MMT lower than the official USDA estimate. As a consequence wheat exports are lowered to 10 MMT. Barley exports for MY 2022/23 are also forecast down at 3 MMT, 500,000 MT lower than official USDA projection as result of lower production and slower farmer selling.

Post forecasts that Marketing Year (MY 2022/23) harvested area and production will only slightly increase from the previous year due to a recovery from floods and storms, expectation of lower oil prices, and more adoption of technology.

Colombia’s economy is projected to grow at a slower pace in 2023, restricting a more substantial growth in demand for grains in marketing year (MY) 2022/23. Although the United States continues to be the main sourcing option for Colombian importers of corn given trade preferences under the U.S.-Colombia Trade Promotion Agreement and geographical advantages, increasing competition from Brazilian and Argentinian corn is expected.

Owing to improved weather conditions, grain production in Turkey in marketing year (MY) 2022/23 is projected to increase year-over-year to 17.3 million metric tons (MMT). Wheat, barley, corn, and rice production are individually projected higher from last year which was hit by intense dry weather.

Nigeria wheat millers are diversifying their sources of wheat import due to the Russia-Ukraine crisis. FAS Lagos (Post) estimates wheat imports for MY 2022/23 at 6 million metric ton (MMT), a 3 percent reduction from last year’s Post estimate. Meanwhile, insurgency and floods in the northern part of the country greatly impacted corn and rice production respectively.

Export prices decreased 2-8 percent as new-crop rice supplies began entering the market.

Australia is on the path to a third consecutive bumper grain crop in marketing year (MY) 2022/23 after a record setting winter crop and strong summer crop production in MY 2021/22. After another strong start to the planting season followed up by great rainfalls, there is ample moisture to carry the wheat and barley crops through the grain fill stage.

Post forecasts Burmese rice exports higher in October. Despite low demand from African countries, there is high demand from Bangladesh and China. Domestic prices for both Emata and Shwe Bo Pawsan declined in October as supplies from the new rice crop enter the market and the Myanmar kyat appreciated against the U.S. dollar.

Venezuela's economic recovery continues, strengthening Venezuelans' purchasing power and consumption. As a result, in marketing year (MY) 2022/23 wheat consumption is revised up 4 percent compared to USDA's official forecast, while imports will increase to 1.3 million MT. The United States remains the largest supplier of hard red winter wheat to Venezuela.