Browse Data and Analysis

According to preliminary model-based field crop estimates, spring wheat production in MY 2024/2025 fell one percent over the previous year on a 2.9 percent decline in area planted, partly offset by improved average yields.

FAS Manila forecasts Marketing Year (MY) 2024/25 rice imports to reach 4.60 million metric tons (MT), given the implementation of Executive Order No. 62, 2024 that reduced rice tariff rates from 35 to 15 percent.

FAS/Ottawa is forecasting total wheat production to reach 35.5 million metric tons (MMT) in marketing year (MY) 2024/25, an 11 percent increase over the previous year, because of significant improvements in crop conditions in the major wheat-growing...

Despite record production and ample stocks, the Philippines is forecast to import a record volume of rice. Large imports are spurred in part by high domestic prices and the recent government decision to reduce tariffs from 35 to 15 percent.

In marketing year (MY) 2024/25, Canada’s total production of principal grains (wheat, durum, oats, barley, corn) is forecast to increase by 4.9 percent to 61.4 million metric tons (MMT) over the previous year on an additional 1.7 MMT of wheat production. In MY 2023/24, FAS/Ottawa is forecasting a 55 percent increase in corn imports over the previous year, on strong demand for animal feed due to the impacts of drought in the Prairie Provinces.

FAS Manila forecasts MY 2024/25 milled rice production will increase to 12.125 million MT as the country emerges from the current El Nino and government spending on inputs and machinery contributes to increased yield.

In marketing year 2023/24, wheat production fell seven percent from the previous year to 31.95 million metric tons as severely low soil moisture in vast sections of Alberta and Saskatchewan reduced yields.

FAS Manila maintains its September 2023 forecast for rice and corn production and imports, but lowers its forecast slightly for wheat imports to 6.0 million metric tons.

FAS Ottawa forecasts total wheat production to be 31.1 million metric tons (MT), down ten percent year-over-year (y/y) on lower yields due to widespread drought across the prairie provinces.

FAS Manila expects rice imports to decline to 3.5 million MT as high prices in the international market and price ceilings ordered by the President disincentivize imports.

Wheat area rose to its highest level since 2001, at the expense of oats, rye, mixed grains, and lentils. Export volumes of wheat grain year-to-date (August to May) are up 78 percent over the same time last year, and wheat products (in grain equivalent) are up 21 percent.

There are no changes to rice and corn production and imports, nor wheat imports for MY 2023/24.